Over the first few days of the window, Manchester City are hoping to stave off Liverpool interest in Bournemouth's Semenyo and complete his signing.
The forward does have a good relationship with Anfield figures like Richard Hughes from their time together at Bournemouth. Semenyo's £65m release clause came into effect yesterday, and it could well set the market in motion.
Semenyo already looks set to be the big major signing of this window, but he is unlikely to be the only one. Many industry figures expect January to be busy.
While the summer window always ends up frenetic – clubs know what they need and can act without disrupting the season – January is far less predictable. One year it's chaotic, the next unusually quiet.
The last three years illustrate this perfectly. Premier League clubs went from spending over £800m in 2023 to a "mere" £100m in 2024, before climbing to £370m last year.
The 2024 lull was largely due to clubs self-enforcing restrictions from PSR. That element is now set to be influenced by the Premier League's recent vote to abandon the system in favour of Squad Cost Ratio, though without firm caps. As noted in this newsletter before, these changes will empower the wealthiest clubs and owners, while forcing many "middle-class" clubs into a cycle of constant sales.
This will inevitably have unintended consequences, probably starting with this window.
One reason January is so changeable is that, more than in summer, it is shaped by the specific circumstances of each season. Every campaign has its own rhythms, which in turn influence mid-season transfer activity.
The patterns of this season already point to the busiest January since 2023 – primarily because a surprising number of clubs are dissatisfied with their squads.
It may feel incredible to say, given how relentless the summer window was, but that is exactly the point. When transfers are rushed, as they often are, decisions rarely fully satisfy.
