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🎁 Johnson's Christmas jam

Plus: Fundraising nightmare | Sunday, September 22, 2024
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By Justin Green · Sep 22, 2024

We've got news. Tonight's Sunday edition is 642 words, a 2.5-minute read.

  1. 🎁 Johnson's Christmas jam
  2. 👀 Inside the bill
  3. 🏔 What Chuck's reading
  4. 📉 GOP's nightmare chart
 
 
1 big thing: 🎁 Johnson's Christmas jam
 
Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

After two weeks of self-inflicted agony, Speaker Mike Johnson has caved on a funding stopgap. Next comes the actual hard part, just in time for Christmas.

  • The House will vote this week on a 3-month spending stopgap bill that's "very narrow" and "bare-bones," the speaker announced today.
  • The next big deadline will be Dec. 20.

Why it matters: Johnson says this week's Plan B will "prevent the Senate from jamming us" with new spending. But the same problems will be here in December, setting up House Republicans for a date at the jam factory.

Problem 1: A core group of House Republicans will never vote for a spending stopgap bill.

  • 13 of them voted against a stopgap last week, plus House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers.
  • If the Senate can get its act together and pass its appropriations bills, the House is primed to get ran over on big-time priorities.

Problem 2: Johnson needs too many Democratic votes to have leverage.

  • He'll need Democrats to pass a stopgap this week.
  • When that dynamic rears up in December over a full budget, he'll again need them. But he'll also be about two weeks away from a speaker election.

Problem 3: The GOP's shutdown appetite will grow after November.

  • Johnson has pushed Republicans — including former President Trump — away from a tough spending fight by citing the fear of being blamed for a pre-election shutdown.
  • Come December, that line of logic is gone.
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2. 👀 Inside the bill
 

Johnson's Plan B includes another $230 million in Secret Service funding, which would be given under the condition the agency cooperates with the congressional task force.

  • It also provides around $20 billion to top off FEMA's disaster relief fund.

Look for Republicans to try to pass this bill on Wednesday via regular order.

  • When that quickly fails (see problem #1 above), they'll need Democrats to help it reach the 2/3 majority to pass under suspension.

Go deeper.

— Stef Kight and Juliegrace Brufke

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3. 🏔 What Chuck's reading: Montana real-talk
 
Photo: William Campbell/Getty Images

Here's a triple-threat of quotes that stick with you, from a new set of weekend profiles about the Montana Senate race.

  1. "They were the party of the people that took showers at the end of the day, not the beginning of the day ... That's changed," former Democratic state lawmaker Brad Hamlett told the N.Y. Times on why his party has declined in relevance in Montana.
  2. "Oh, I wanted to slap Trump," likely Trump voter Bernadetta WanglerBailey told the Wall Street Journal after the former president insulted Sen. Jon Tester's (D-Mont.) weight.
  3. At a rally with Planned Parenthood, Tester called the overturn of Roe v Wade "bull baloney," the WSJ reports.

Why it matters: The battle for Tester's — and Chuck Schumer's majority — is coming down to whether the "dirt farmer" from Big Sandy can outrun his party one last time.

  • Tester is the only Senate Democrat not to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for president.
  • "That's for the people of Montana to decide on," Tester told CNN when asked if Harris is too liberal.

The race is now "likely Republican," with polling trending in favor of GOP nominee Tim Sheehy.

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A message from PhRMA

Seniors are feeling the true cost of drug price "negotiations"
 
 

Some Medicare patients will pay more for medicines. Others may not be able to get their medicines.

  • 89% of insurers and PBMs say they plan to reduce access to medicines in Medicare Part D because of the Inflation Reduction Act.

Higher costs and less access. That's not what seniors were promised.

Learn more.

 
 
4. GOP's nightmare chart
 
A bar chart that compares the August 2024 fundraising receipts of Vice President Harris and former President Trump. Harris raised approximately $189.6 million, significantly outpacing Trump, who garnered about $44.5 million. This highlights a substantial fundraising advantage for Harris during this period.
Data: FEC; Note: Just includes the candidates' campaign committees; Chart: Axios Visuals

Above is the chart that Johnson and Mitch McConnell really don't want to see — a Harris campaign that's rolling up cash, paired with Trump fundraising that's sputtering to the finish line.

The bottom line: This fundraising reality will pressure GOP leader candidates John Thune, Rick Scott and John Cornyn to inject more money into Senate races down the stretch.

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A message from PhRMA

Seniors are feeling the true cost of drug price "negotiations"
 
 

Some Medicare patients will pay more for medicines. Others may not be able to get their medicines.

  • 89% of insurers and PBMs say they plan to reduce access to medicines in Medicare Part D because of the Inflation Reduction Act.

Higher costs and less access. That's not what seniors were promised.

Learn more.

 

This newsletter was edited by Arthur MacMillan

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