Fifteen points to ponder

Amid all the conflicting Iran war headlines coming out, traders appear to be choosing to look on the bright side. Brent crude eased to as low as $98 per barrel on Wednesday, while U.S. crude hovered around $88.

Asian equities closed comfortably up, meantime, with South Korea's KOSPI gaining around 1.5% and Japan's Nikkei nearly 3%. European shares rose by more than 1% after the open, while U.S. futures were up before the bell.

And in another sign of the buoyed sentiment, gold - which has behaved more like a risk asset lately - was up by nearly 2% on Wednesday morning as it benefited from a softer dollar and easing concerns about higher interest rates.

Nevertheless, it's clear the war has caused a significant hit to economic confidence. Tuesday saw the first sweep of business surveys from March, which showed stalling private sector growth in the eurozone, rising U.S. inflation fears and more.

Overall, uncertainty is the order of the day as it remains unclear who exactly President Trump is negotiating with and whether a swift alleviation of energy disruption can really be secured. A spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces accused the U.S. of negotiating with itself.

Elsewhere, private credit jitters continued as Ares joined Apollo and other asset managers to become the latest to halt redemptions after a wave of investors sought to exit certain funds.

And in technology news, South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix is reportedly planning to list in the U.S. in the second half of 2026, while Elon Musk's SpaceX could file for an IPO as soon as this week or next week, according to The Information.

With that, onto today's column.

Whatever the outcome of the Iran war, one question is already inescapable for the Gulf's energy-rich economies: is the U.S. security umbrella still worth the price?

Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, it's been its Gulf neighbours who have suffered most from missiles and drones that followed - tearing through energy infrastructure, damaging economies, and exposing the limits of a supposed U.S. security umbrella.

That reckoning carries consequences far beyond the military. At stake is a potential rethink ‌of the financial, trade and military ties at the very heart of their dollar-based economies — and of the hundreds of billions in dollar reserves underpinning them.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, only 29% of the country approves of President Trump's economic stewardship, the lowest rating in either of Trump's terms and lower than any economic approval rating of his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden.

Want more smart, engaging financial analysis in your inbox? Subscribe to Trading Day by Jamie McGeever, a daily newsletter delivered just after the market close. And check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X.