No Easter truce

Brent crude climbed back to almost $109 per barrel and WTI to just over $107 on Thursday after Trump's televised speech, in which he said the U.S. military had nearly achieved its goals in Iran but would "hit them" over the coming weeks and "bring them back to the Stone Ages".

Although Trump noted that "discussions are ongoing", he gave little detail on access through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Asian stock indexes ended the session in negative territory, with Japan's Nikkei down 2.4% and South Korea's Kospi sliding 4.7%. European shares slid by around 1% after the open, while U.S. futures were in the red before the bell.

Meantime, the dollar index edged up after two days of losses, regaining the 100 level as safe-haven demand reemerged, while gold eased back from the two-week highs it touched on Wednesday's glimmers of hope. U.S. Treasuries were also down.

Investors are heading into a long Easter weekend with a degree of nervousness about what happens next. Adding to the tension, Good Friday will see the release of the March U.S. employment report, which will give another read on any real-economy impact.

For now, though, early prints of March economic data point to less of a shock than many expected. ISM's manufacturing survey ticked higher, U.S. consumer confidence rose unexpectedly, private sector payrolls beat forecasts and full-year corporate earnings growth estimates are actually increasing.

Maybe the hit will come with a delay, but for now the picture is one of steep input price rises and resilient activity - which will keep central banks on their toes.

Elsewhere, as NASA heads back around the moon for the first time in half a century, Elon Musk's SpaceX finally filed for an initial public offering - which could become the largest in history, and a test of investor appetite for big-ticket risk assets against an unsettled market backdrop.

Meantime, Amazon is in talks to buy satellite telecom group Globalstar as it ramps up efforts to build its own low-earth-orbit satellite business to rival SpaceX's Starlink, the Financial Times reported.

With that, onto today's column.

The Iran war's energy shock is historic. The real economy has taken it on the chin so far.

One of the difficulties in investing around any sudden crisis like the Middle East conflict is that there's very little immediate economic information beyond market sentiment, pricing or anecdotes. By the time reliable data on the economic impact eventually shows up, the crisis is often on the wane.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Air travel in and out of the United Arab Emirates is only slowly recovering from the initial shock of the Iran war, with Trump indicating overnight that there would likely be two to three weeks more of the conflict.

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