| If you're finding value in our Creator Economy newsletter, I encourage you to consider subscribing to The Information. It contains exclusive reporting on the most important stories in tech. Save up to $250 on your first year of access. Happy New Year! Welcome to the first edition of Creator Economy in 2025! With a new U.S. presidential administration and TikTok's future in the country hanging in the balance, this year is already off to a busy start. Here's what I'm forecasting will happen over the next 12 months: • The Supreme Court will uphold a U.S. law that could ban TikTok. After reporting on this story over the past four years and spending a lot of time speaking with legal experts, I expect the court to decide that national security concerns override worries that the ban violates the First Amendment, similar to the appeals court's ruling. I think the Supreme Court will make a swift decision before the Jan. 19 deadline. That won't mean it's game over for TikTok. President-elect Donald Trump, whose lawyers have asked the Supreme Court to delay its decision, wants to suspend the ban. And after the video app exhausts the legal route, I expect parent company ByteDance will hold discussions with buyers, though it may ultimately decide to shut the app down in the U.S. rather than strike a deal. As I outlined in this story, I predict Elon Musk will emerge as a suitor and try to buy the company, potentially merging it with his social network X. Before then, TikTok is trying to keep customers from fleeing. On Thursday, my colleagues reported that TikTok has told some big ad buying firms how they can get out of ad agreements if the app is banned in the U.S. later this month. • Instagram and YouTube will launch major shopping features to compete with TikTok Shop and take advantage of uncertainty around a ban. Individual creators on TikTok have made entire businesses around earning commissions through products they recommend, and they don't have a great alternative if TikTok Shop disappears. Though Instagram in 2022 scaled back its shopping initiatives, I think it will revive these efforts in 2025, making it easier for creators to sell and recommend products. YouTube has also signaled shopping is a focus, including by recently expanding a partnership with Shopify. • Hollywood goes even bigger on creators. Movie studios and streamers will work with more social media creators this year, both by casting them in traditional acting roles and by building new reality TV shows around them. They will also license their content and shows and launch more free, ad-supported streaming channels as they look to boost the amount of content available on their services. We could see deals featuring big stars, such as Alix Earle and Mark Rober. Last year streaming channels premiered a number of creator-centric shows, including reality TV show "Beast Games" which became Prime Video's No. 1 unscripted series launch ever, even as it faced a lawsuit from contestants. Hulu also had an unexpected hit with "The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives," which follows a group of TikTok-famous Mormon moms, and beat out the latest premiere of "The Kardashians." Entertainment companies need good content—and more of it quickly—and creators have plenty of ideas. • Direct investments in creators and their companies will rise. It's not clear there's a market for many startups focused on offering tools for creators. I expect more investors, from venture capitalists to private equity firms, to back the part of the creator economy that continues to grow: The influencers themselves, who have historically bootstrapped their companies. Creator-founded companies, particularly beauty brands started by influencers, could be targets for investments and acquisitions. Skincare brand Summer Fridays, for example, last year received a strategic growth investment from private equity firm TSG Consumer Partners, while Divi, a scalp and haircare company founded by creator Dani Austin, received a minority investment from Norwest Venture Partners. A year ago, we were spot on with predicting that creators would be a key part of the 2024 election. Donald Trump appeared on more than 20 podcasts and tapped creators with heavily young and male audiences, while Kamala Harris' campaign embraced TikTok. We were also correct in predicting more shutdowns and acquisitions in the creator economy. We also hit the mark by saying creators would really embrace artificial intelligence tools. Most creators I speak to are using some sort of AI-powered editing tools or chatbots to help with brainstorming. A global study from YouTube and Radius last year found that 92% of creators are using generative AI tools. But my prediction that X would rebrand back to Twitter didn't happen. I also predicted TikTok Shop sales would be a roaring success, which is more challenging to assess. Earlier this year, TikTok Shop showed steady growth with gross sales in the U.S. topping $1 billion a month since July, The Information previously reported. But it's unclear if TikTok ended up meeting its target of $17.5 billion in gross merchandise sales in the U.S. by year end. Ban aside, TikTok Shop's ultimate success is still far from certain. Here's what else is going on… • Venezuela's top court fined TikTok $10 million and ordered the company to open an office in the country after three young people died participating in "challenges" on the app that involved ingesting chemical substances. • ICYMI: Albania announced a one-year ban on TikTok in late December after a 14-year-old boy was stabbed to death by a classmate in November. Local media reported arguments between the two boys on social media. Videos of minors supporting the killing also emerged on TikTok, Reuters reported. See The Information's Creator Economy Database for an exclusive list of private companies and their investors. Dick Clark Production's "New Year's Rockin' Eve with Ryan Seacrest" broadcast featured several creators, including YouTubers Rhett & Link, Jools Lebron, the creator behind the "very demure" trend, and Logan Moffitt, best known for his cucumber recipes on TikTok. Stem AI, a new startup co-founded by former Twitch CEO Emmett Shear, which hasn't yet launched, is developing AI software that "understands, cooperates with, and aligns with human behavior, human preferences, human biology, human morality, and human ethics," according to a trademark application first reported by TechCrunch. The startup's investors include Andreessen Horowitz. MrBeast shared his holiday engagement to influencer Thea Booysen in social media posts on New Year's Day. Meghan Markle announced a new Netflix series called "With Love, Meghan" focused on cooking and gardening, premiering Jan. 15. She also rejoined Instagram after a seven-year hiatus on Jan. 1. Her account has about 1 million followers as of Thursday afternoon. Joel Kaplan is Meta Platforms' chief global affairs officer, a move that elevates the company's most prominent Republican ahead of Trump's presidency and Republican control of both houses of Congress. Kaplan is replacing Nick Clegg, who will remain at the company for a few more months. Read more here. Thank you for reading the Creator Economy Newsletter! I'd love your feedback, ideas and tips: kaya@theinformation.com. If you think someone else might enjoy this newsletter, please pass it forward or they can sign up here: https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/creator-economy | 
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