It's a busy day in the oil world, with everything from Trump readying tariffs on Canadian and Mexican energy products to an OPEC+ meeting.
Over the weekend, Trump said he would initiate tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. On Monday morning, he delayed tariffs on Mexico for one month after the country agreed to reinforce its northern border with 10,000 National Guard members.
The situation is very fluid - the start dates for tariffs have been a moving target and Trump only recently agreed to the carve-out for Canadian crude. For now, Canada, which supplies about 60% of U.S. crude imports, will get a 10% tariff while Mexico will see a 25% tariff.
The U.S. imports some 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Canada and about 457,000 bpd from Mexico. Some refiners have warned that the tariffs could hit their margins. Phillips 66, HF Sinclair and Par Pacific have higher exposure to Canadian crude, according to TD Cowen.
The tariffs are anticipated to raise the costs for heavier crude grades that many U.S. refiners are configured to run. That shift could create new opportunities for fuelmakers in other markets like Europe to make up the difference, Robert Harvey and Georgina McCartney report.
Meanwhile, Asian refiners could soak up discounted Mexican and Canadian crude, buoying their profit margins.
U.S. pump prices are likely to rise as a result of the tariffs, particularly if refiners have to pay more for their crude or if they opt to cut some production as margins fall.
The American Petroleum Institute on Saturday said it would continue to work with the Trump administration on full exclusions for energy products, emphasizing the importance of free and fair trade.
Oil prices were up on Monday in early trading as tariffs loomed but concerns that a trade war could drag on the economy capped gains. They fell after Trump delayed tariffs on Mexican imports.
OPEC+, meanwhile, on Monday agreed to stick to its plans to gradually raise oil output from April. Trump, whoich clashed with OPEC during his first term, has called on the group to lower crude prices.
The group, which met online, also changed the list of consultants and other firms it uses to monitor production. It will no longer use the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) or Rystad, and will instead use Kpler, OilX, and ESAI for second sources.
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