Markets now eye govt shutdown after trade row

There's something more than U.S. tariffs and recession risks gnawing at financial markets. There's the growing sense that the chaotic policy disruption in Washington is eroding the world's trust in U.S. institutions and its assets.

Broken political alliances and economic wars with major trade partners are having many effects - not least heightened business uncertainty over what will happen next - but one of the most notable is the brewing investor concern that America could lose a chunk of its "exorbitant privilege".

This term, first coined in the 1960s by then French finance minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, essentially refers to the benefits the U.S. gains from the outsize demand the world has for U.S. assets as a safe haven. The privilege hinges variously on the extensive use of the dollar internationally, the U.S. rule of law and institutional rigor as well as the projection of its soft power.

The list is much longer than that, but you get the picture. The sheer size, depth and transparency of U.S. markets, in combination with the reliability and openness of its governance, have - for decades - given the U.S. a disproportionate slice of world capital and the cheaper financing that goes with that.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Could Donald Trump's avowedly disruptive administration call all that into question and whittle this advantage away?

Financing metrics, such as long-term U.S. borrowing costs, don't yet suggest that a major fracture is afoot. 

But U.S. equity prices have started to correct over the past month, even as the dollar has weakened - an ominous combination. 

Ultimately, though, the very fact that trust - or the lack thereof - is part of the U.S. conversation at all is the most remarkable thing.

On Wednesday, JPMorgan's chief global economist Bruce Kasman spoke openly about the challenges during a roadshow in Singapore. He opined about how the U.S. secured its "exorbitant privilege", citing many of the reasons noted above and including things like the "integrity of information flow".

The administration's cutbacks to government agencies and moves to disband the advisory committees assisting with data collection are also potentially jarring, he said.

"All of those things are part of the uncertainties that have moved into U.S. policy, and that (form) part of the risk in the outlook this year I don't think has been appreciated."

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Stock markets have voted clearly over the past month on the brewing trade wars and lack of policy visibility in the U.S., as they've repeatedly hit the 'sell' button. Regular voters now seem to be following suit. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 57% of Americans think Trump is being too erratic in his efforts to shake up the U.S. economy, and 70% expect that tariffs will make goods more expensive.

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