There will be a bit of history this weekend, as Liverpool are almost certain to clinch the title, and the promoted three are all likely to be mathematically relegated. We've actually known all this for weeks, though, and football is really about what is live. That is why the FA Cup has been enjoying such a rebirth, as it has never felt more vibrant. And that's before the potential mayhem of European competition...

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Written by Miguel Delaney

Miguel's must reads

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Problems at the bottom go right to the top of the game

Two things are almost certain to happen this weekend beyond Liverpool's title win. One, it will be the earliest in a season when all three Premier League relegation spots have been confirmed. Two, it will be the first time the three promoted teams have gone straight back down in successive seasons. There's never been clean sweeps twice in a row like that. The two automatically promoted sides – Leeds United and Burnley – are meanwhile already looking like yo-yo clubs. A concern is evolving, especially with how the bottom three have so far collectively accumulated fewer points than any previous bottom three. I explore the entire issue here as well how we might have to get used to teams almost "doing a Derby County" every year.

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Cup runneth over the boundaries of the pitch

The predictability of the Premier League is offset by the energy of the FA Cup, especially given the extent of the wait that Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and especially Crystal Palace have had to endure for trophies. There are also some considerable political and purely football philosophical issues under that, that are explored here. Nottingham Forest-Manchester City offers a classic clash of ideologies. Oliver Glasner and Unai Emery is more of a battle of tactical tweaks, but one where the Villa manager could do with a win. Glasner has not lost to Villa at Palace, having enjoyed two big wins. They have often bypassed midfield to get the better of Emery's team, and it is one of those intriguing trends – especially given Villa's resurgence – that elevates games like this.

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Miguel's insights

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Chelsea and United already the busiest behind scenes...

If it was another drab week in the Premier League, the same cannot be said for the transfer market. And, of course, final Premier League positions are likely to ramp that up even further. There all kinds of transfer discussions taking place, partly due to clubs' obvious necessity but partly due to the league-wide sense that PSR requires a constant "churn". Chelsea, typically, are expected to be the busiest. The Independent reported this week that they have stolen a march in the very competitive race for Bournemouth's Dean Huijsen. While a deal is not yet fully done, the feeling is that they can currently put together the most attractive package – including a senior role for a ball-playing defender. Should that happen, some of Chelsea's other centre-halves will almost certainly leave, and there is considerable interest in Levi Colwill. There could be a merry-go-round there. The Stamford Bridge hierarchy are also again looking at attackers. Manchester United would be perfectly willing to make Cole Palmer a target if there was any hint of a move, but they're aware that's virtually impossible. Hence the advance on Matheus Cunha at Wolves. United will definitely sign a midfielder and forward... should other trading allow, not to mention Champions League qualification. The Old Trafford hierarchy have a bigger list if they do win the Europa League.

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... but transfer market entering realignment

Another developing trend in the market is that, outside the absolute top tier of talent, we might be entering a period where transfer fees again drop well below £100m. This is another effect of PSR. Even the wealthiest clubs are just reluctant to go above that threshold – a factor that could well keep Alexander Isak at Newcastle United for some time. The belief among executives is that £50-60m is going to be the "new normal" again, conditioned by release clauses. An illustration comes from a club looking at Isak – Arsenal. The Gunners know they can get either Leipzig's Benjamin Sesko or Sporting's Viktor Gyokeres for much lower prices, due to clauses. In that context, Bournemouth have set a price of £70m for Antoine Semenyo. Even that, however, feels a little steep.

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Miguel's dispatches

Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt have been one of the stories of the season in reaching the Europa League semi-finals to face Tottenham Hotspur and they duly introduced a few more sub-plots, by setting up various interviews with English media over the last week. They'll all be out next week but what is so striking about the Bodo story is how it is a model for the rest of the game as a defiance of current football economics, but also unique to its own club identity. No one else to have reached a modern European semi-final can say they are inviting famous opposition to the Arctic circle, after all.

Player of the week

MIGUEL'S BIG WEEKLY CALL

Let's go for the major European semi-finals this week. I think Arsenal and Barcelona will make it through to the Champions League final, with Athletic Bilbao and Tottenham Hotspur reaching the Europa League showpiece. The latter is admittedly said with much less confidence.

Every week I'll make one prediction or talking point for the week. Feel free to email in with thoughts.

Four Premier League champions have mathematically clinched the title with a real flourish in front of their own fans. In other words, a win by three goals or more, at home, that directly delivered the title. The equivalent would be Liverpool beating Tottenham Hotspur 3-0 or greater on Sunday. Name the four champions, the season, and the win. As an example for illustration, Manchester United clinched the title with a 0-0 draw at home to Arsenal in 2008-09, but this obviously doesn't count, since it was not a heavy win.

(You can find out the answers here. The answer page will be updated weekly and contains answers from previous newsletters, too)

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