Whoah, we're halfway there 

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Alun John, EMEA Breaking News Correspondent, finance and markets

Wall Street looks set for another up day, thanks to above-expectations earnings from Google, which sent its shares around 6% higher in out-of-hours trading, and further signs that deals will be done to avoid the most extreme trade war. 

South Korean and U.S. delegations gave positive signals after their first round of trade talks and Reuters, and others, reported China was considering exempting some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs. 

S&P 500 futures were up around 0.6%, suggesting the index would build on what's already been a 3.8% gain for the week, and the U.S. dollar too was rising on nearly all developed market currencies. 

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The S&P 500, after three straight days of gains, closed Thursday down "only" around 10.7% from its February closing high. 

That's not a bad little comeback, given that it was down more than 20% at one point a couple of weeks ago, even if it did not close below that symbolic level. 

And with futures pointing to a higher open, the benchmark is set for further gains on Friday - though one would not want to make too many firm predictions with a whole day of trading still to come. 

A major part of the bounceback has been driven by the U.S. administration walking back some of its more "out there" positions on Fed independence and tariffs, and getting some positive signs back from the rest of the world too. 

Investors have spent weeks agonising about whether the tariff announcement on April 2 was a negotiating tool or a genuine belief, and while we still do not know what the plan was at the time, there's enough going on to give traders hope that the outcome will be a series of deals that see the worst of the duties negotiated away.

After a first round of trade talks in Washington on Thursday, a delegation from Seoul said that South Korea and the United States agreed to craft a trade package aimed at removing new U.S. tariffs before the 90-day pause is lifted in July. 

And after some encouragement from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week, China is considering exempting some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs, Reuters and others have reported. 

Some numbers are also helping the mood, with no real sign of a recession in hard economic data, as opposed to surveys, Thursday's initial jobless claims were the latest to come in fine. 

Again, it does not tell us anything much about the future, but strong earnings from Alphabet are also helping. 

The next, and harder, question is how much further things can go. The first bit of a market move is normally the easiest, as there are plenty of people who can stop selling and start buying - not the case when things are more balanced.

"My view is that the damage to U.S. exceptionalism will be longer lasting, but that it's understandable that there'll be a relief recovery after the U.S. has come back from the brink policy wise," says Jim Reid, global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank. 

It's also worth keeping an eye on the dollar, which gives a view of the U.S. on a relative basis. 

That's now stopped depreciating, and is stronger on the week against the euro, yen and Swiss franc, though that's sufficiently marginal in the case of the first two that it may have changed by the time you read this. 

The dollar certainly isn't halfway back to its position on April 2, let alone recent highs. 

Let's wait for that to happen to say things are halfway back to normal.