Monday, June 30, 2025

Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, and Sadiq Khan, mayor of London, are both encouraging Labour MPs to vote against the government on the disability benefits bill tomorrow.   

They have lent their support to Meg Hillier and Debbie Abrahams, the negotiatiors for the Labour rebels, who say that they still have concerns about  the government's retreat.   

Keir Starmer has handled this badly: he has made a concession costing £2.5bn a year and it still may not be enough.

That said, the Independent office sweepstake on tomorrow's vote ranges from 20 to 40 Labour votes against the government. 

Professor Philip Cowley of Queen Mary University of London, and historian of parliamentary rebellions, has a useful list of benchmarks for tomorrow's vote, ranging from 16, the largest rebellion Starmer has seen so far, to 72, the largest rebellion by Labour MPs on the second reading of a Labour government bill (national service, 1947, and tuition fees, 2004). 

Written by John Rentoul

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Tomorrow inside the Westminster bubble  

Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for 

Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, will try to persuade wavering Labour MPs to support the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill during the debate ahead of its second reading, with the vote due at about 7pm.

She will outline concessions on the health element of universal credit. Behind the scenes, ministers will attempt to arm-twist Labour MPs to vote for the measure or at least abstain.

Before that, Keir Starmer will chair the cabinet's weekly meeting.

The Commons will sit at 11.30am, starting with questions to Rachel Reeves and her Treasury ministers.

Catherine McKinnell, the schools minister, will be quizzed by the education select committee about children with special educational needs and disability (SEND) at 10am.

Robert Chote, chair of the UK Statistics Authority, will appear before the public administration committee at 10am.

Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister for EU relations, will give evidence to the Lords European affairs committee on the UK-EU reset at 3.30pm.

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