Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Yesterday Keir Starmer backed away from a deadline of 2034 for raising defence spending to 3 per cent of national income; today it emerged that he will come under pressure at a Nato summit this month to promise to raise it to 3.5 per cent by 2035. 

John Healey, the defence secretary, said the government would "set out how we'll pay for future increases in the future". 

As we approach a moment of clarity next week about spending plans for the next four years, when Rachel Reeves presents the spending review, it feels as if the public finances for the foreseeable future are in some disarray. 

Even without the confusion over defence spending, the irresistible force of a widening deficit seems to be about to meet the immovable object of fiscal rules designed to maintain credibility in the financial markets. 

The prime minister's words yesterday are destined to come back to haunt him: "I don't think you can tax your way to growth. We have high tax as it is."

Written by John Rentoul

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Tomorrow inside the Westminster bubble  

Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for 

Kemi Badenoch will be hoping for a strong performance at Prime Minister's Questions at noon to silence her internal critics. A call for a quicker, bigger rise in defence spending, perhaps?

MPs will meet at 11.30am for questions on Scotland. After PMQs, Jeremy Corbyn will propose a motion calling for an independent public inquiry into alleged UK government cooperation with Israel in its actions in Gaza. Later, the Labour peer Alf Dubs will ask a question in the Lords about humanitarian relief. 

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, will make a speech in Manchester promoting a boost to transport projects ahead of next week's spending review. 

Torsten Bell, the pensions minister, will be quizzed by the work and pensions select committee about pensioner poverty and the winter fuel payment at 9.30am. Robert Reed, president of the Supreme Court, will appear before the Lords constitution committee at 10.30am.

HMRC officials will be questioned by the Treasury Committee at 2.15pm. The energy committee will launch an inquiry into energy bills, including winter fuel payments. It will speak to fuel poverty experts at 3pm.

QUOTATION OF THE DAY

"Gary, what's the cab-rank rule?"

Robert Jenrick in a new video asks a taxi driver to explain how Richard Hermer, the attorney general, acted for a rogue's gallery of clients

Quiz answer: Parliamentary private secretary to the prime minister (Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and the last two are Keir Starmer's)

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