Get set for 3-day obstacle course

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Morning Bid U.S.

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets, Reuters Open Interest

World markets have hunkered down for three days of economic health checks, corporate readouts and policy decisions that may define the remainder of the summer, with U.S. trade worries easing somewhat following a series of framework deals that should enable better planning ahead.

Global stocks and U.S. futures flatlined on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve due to hold the line in interest rates again later in the day just as U.S. GDP and jobs updates stream in alongside the first set of megacap earnings from Microsoft and Meta. The dollar took a breather too after a strong two-day rally.

I'll review today's news and then discuss why the International Monetary Fund's upgraded forecast for the global economy on Tuesday suggests the world is navigating Washington's trade war better than many had feared, for better or worse.

The big macro market mover late Tuesday was a sharp drop in Treasury yields ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting and the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement. This followed strong demand at a series of hefty debt auctions this week, most notably record take-up of 7-year notes on Tuesday. The drop in 10-year yields to their lowest point since July 3 was all the more impressive against the surge in crude oil prices to their highest level in over a month.
The second quarter U.S. GDP estimate now takes center stage, with the narrower-than-forecast June trade deficit released on Tuesday pushing up the Atlanta Fed's estimate of growth to 2.9% from 2.4% earlier. Other releases showed U.S. June job openings softening but consumer confidence brightening this month, with the monthly payrolls and June PCE inflation gauge due on Friday
The Fed is expected to stand pat later despite likely dissents from President Donald Trump's two appointees on the board. The Bank of Canada is likely to hold steady too. The Bank of Japan delivers its verdict on Thursday. While the trade picture appears to be clearing up for monetary policymakers ahead of Friday's deadline for trade deals, the inflation fallout remains foggy.
With investors deep in the weeds of the earnings season, attention turns squarely to the artificial intelligence theme after the bell on Wednesday with Microsoft and Meta's updates. Apple and Amazon are due Thursday. UPS and Whirlpool lost more than 10% on Tuesday amid tariff-related hits. In Europe, pharma giant Novo Nordisk was still reeling from a near 25% share price plunge on Tuesday - its biggest ever one-day drop - after it slashed its outlook amid the stiff competition facing its main obesity drug.

I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com.

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Today's Market Minute

U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce on Tuesday, following two days of what both sides described as constructive talks aimed at defusing an escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies.
U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade deal with India has yet to be finalised and warned of possible higher tariffs ahead of an August 1 deadline to seal an agreement.
Trump's trade tariffs are ramping up the cost of importing already-pricey cocoa and hurting the competitiveness of local factories versus Canadian and Mexican outfits that supply the U.S., according to conversations with 11 industry executives, representatives, experts and traders.
Retail investors are often late to Wall Street parties, only catching the rally once "smart money" is looking for the exit. But that doesn't appear to be the case this time around, claims ROI columnist Jamie McGeever.
If you consider it good practice to consult more than one news source, you may have been confused by the reporting of the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index release. And, writes Income Securities Advisor publisher Marty Fridson, the various interpretations of how that report affected stock prices might have truly left you scratching your head.

IMF could do with a bigger crisis than it forecasts

The world economy has not fallen apart in 2025, which may be either a relief or a worry, depending on how you look at it.

After a chaotic first half of U.S. policy upheaval and trade shocks that unleashed a wild but brief rollercoaster on financial markets, the International Monetary Fund's assessment is that global growth and inflation remain pretty much on even keel.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

IMF economists make the case that economic activity around the world is still relatively subdued compared with historical averages and inflation slightly elevated.

But these quibbles are essentially within margins of error in its midyear global forecasts.

Revising up a prior outlook that was made in the white heat of April's U.S. tariff turmoil, the IMF on Tuesday reckoned the world will sail on with a 3.0% expansion this year and 3.1% next - the latter two tenths slower than 2024 but exactly the average growth rate of the past 10 years.

Read the full column

Today's key chart

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

U.S. President Donald Trump's approval rating dropped another one percentage point to 40% over the second half of July, the lowest of his second term in office, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. As ever, the partisan split was extreme - with 83% of Republicans and just 3% of Democrats approving of his performance. About one-third of independents approved. Overall, 38% of respondents approved of Trump's handling of the economy and 43% of respondents approved of his record on immigration.

Today's events to watch

ADP's U.S. July private sector payrolls (8:15 AM EDT), US Q2 GDP estimate (8:30 AM EDT) June pending home sales (10:00 AM EDT); Mexico Q2 GDP (8:00 AM EDT)
Bank of Canada policy decision (9:45 AM EDT)
Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee policy decision (2:00 PM EDT) and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell (2:30 PM EDT)
U.S. Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement (8:30 AM EDT)
U.S. corporate earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Ford, Kraft Heinz, eBay, Prudential Financial, Verisk, MGM Resorts, Hershey, Humana, Ventas, Equinix, Altria, Western Digital, Cognizant, Lam Research, Smurfit Westrock, Albermarle, Everest, Align, AvalonBay, FirstEnergy, Bunge, Fortive, ADP, IDEX, F5, Garmin

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