Nearly 3M Kids Could Lose Child Tax Credit Under New SSN Rule

U.S. stock futures inched higher on Tuesday, with Dow futures up 0.1%, S&P 500 futures +0.26% and Nasdaq 100 futures +0.44%, as markets braced for a key Federal Reserve policy decision and a fresh wave of corporate earnings. Monday's closing records on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, fueled by a U.S.–EU trade deal, set a bullish tone going into the Fed meeting.

Bond investors warmed to risk, adding duration and scooping up corporate debt amid expectations that the Fed will stand pat at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth straight meeting. Eyes now turn to Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and upcoming data—JOLTs job openings, consumer confidence and Big Tech reports—for clues on the timing of future rate cuts.

Mortgage rates stayed elevated on July 29, 2025, with Zillow listing the 30-year fixed rate at 6.625% and the 15-year at 5.75%.

High borrowing costs—driven by lingering inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve's cautious monetary stance—are locking in existing homeowners while sidelining many first-time and middle-income buyers.

Key figures (as of July 28)

• 30-year fixed: 6.625% rate, 6.799% APR, 1.775 points


• 15-year fixed: 5.750% rate, 6.037% APR, 1.827 points

Corporate and fund managers are dramatically expanding their cryptocurrency treasuries. According to Standard Chartered, institutional entities now hold about 1% of ether's circulating supply and could boost that to 10% over time—a tenfold increase. The bank cites new ether treasury programs by BitMine Immersion Technologies and SharpLink Gaming, plus record spot-ETF inflows, as key drivers.

Bitcoin treasuries are rising in tandem. Crypto software firm Bakkt Holdings is seeking up to $1 billion in new securities offerings to finance fresh Bitcoin purchases, while ARK Invest added $18.6 million of BitMine shares to its ETFs on the same day, underscoring a broad-based institutional pivot into digital assets.

The U.S. Treasury on July 28 announced it plans to borrow $1.3 trillion in net marketable debt in the third quarter, an 82% increase over April's $554 billion estimate. This surge aims to cover maturing obligations and restore its depleted Treasury General Account (TGA) to an $850 billion cushion by September's end.

Facing high yields, the Treasury will prioritize shorter-term bills over long-term bonds, a strategy echoed by President Trump and Treasury Secretary Besent. Recent weak demand at a $70 billion 5-year note auction—yielding 3.983% with the largest tail since October—underscores market absorption concerns amid rising supply.

GOP Tax Law's SSN Requirement Excludes Millions

Under the recently passed tax and spending law, families earning up to $400,000 still qualify for a $2,200 child tax credit, but a new rule demanding Social Security numbers for children and at least one parent is projected to shut out nearly 3 million U.S. children from the benefit.

Low-income families stand to lose the most: single parents need at least $33,700 in annual earnings to claim the full credit, while households earning under $2,500 or with undocumented parents receive nothing. Additional cuts—$186 billion from SNAP and $1 trillion from Medicaid/CHIP over ten years—could deepen hardship and strain community economies.