The European Union's lavish pledge to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy by 2028 risks exacerbating the bloc's already outsized dependence on American gas, just as it finds itself increasingly reliant on Chinese technology to power its energy transition.
The U.S. already accounted for 50% of the EU's liquefied natural gas imports in 2024, as well as 17% of oil imports and 35% of coal imports, according to Eurostat data.
Any expansion in energy trade between the two regions would likely focus on LNG, as the U.S. is the world's top exporter of the super-chilled fuel.
However, the promised purchases appear not only unlikely but downright unrealistic, both because of the enormous volumes involved and the fact that EU energy trade is primarily determined by market forces, not centralised buying.
But the larger concern is that any increased purchases would accelerate Europe's growing dependency on U.S. energy at a precarious moment.
Europe has become heavily reliant on LNG imports on account of its sharp reduction of Russian pipeline gas purchases following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Prior to that, Russia accounted for more than 40% of European gas imports.
Brussels plans to completely phase out Russian energy imports by 2027, a complex but feasible ambition that will further increase its need for LNG, which will come in large part from the U.S.
Relying on a democratic Western ally should create less political danger than tying oneself to an authoritarian power, but it is not risk-free.
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