Premier League braced for transfer deadline 'carnage'

'Total carnage' as window to be smashed

What the end of a chaotic market will bring - and why. Since the window closes at 7pm on Monday, that day's newsletter will arrive slightly later. Also this week:

As Tottenham Hotspur tried to agree the final details in talks with Leipzig's Xavi Simons on Thursday evening, some close to the deal were conscious of an old maxim in football. Get the signature, and get everything done, before letting anyone go home. The concern has been all the more acute given how Spurs' window has already seen them miss out on big targets, and the fear that Chelsea could have come in at any moment. It was why some insiders were eagerly monitoring business at Stamford Bridge, since there was a belief that Chelsea would go all in on Simons as well as Alejandro Garnacho once Christopher Nkunku and Nicolas Jackson were sold.

It's been similar with Liverpool's pursuits of Alexander Isak and Marc Guehi, as well as so many other prospective deals as we come to the close of the window. Newcastle United and Crystal Palace need players in, which is where the signing of Nick Woltemade has caused excitement. PSR has ensured the transfer market now resembles the property market in how so many transfers become part of chains.

Ahead of this weekend, however, there's a trepidation in the air, like that tension at Tottenham. Those chains might actually form chain reactions that lead to an explosion of activity in the transfer market, and - in the words of one source - "total carnage".

Club executives, agents, lawyers and other industry figures currently expect this to be maybe the busiest deadline day ever, certainly in terms of the number of potential deals. There is so much still to be sorted, from the summer's biggest saga to the necessary maintenance work at some of the less wealthy clubs.

There is also less time than people might think, given that the window closes at 7pm on Monday rather than 11pm, as it used to be. Those four hours will create multiple logistical issues, especially as regards players and their camps getting flights. They will mean the weekend's big games, from Manchester United-Burnley on Saturday to Liverpool-Arsenal on Sunday, could be surrounded by all manner of transfer business.

That can obviously be a distraction but, in some cases, club officials getting thrown together in executive boxes at games may help. At Anfield, for example, there is hope that Monday's face-to-face meeting with Newcastle United might have smoothed the way for any negotiations over Isak.

The crunch in available time nevertheless echoes the shrinking of the market, and that is one major reason for this weekend's expected frenzy.

Concentration of wealth in football has ensured fewer and fewer clubs have competitive money, especially outside England. As perhaps the most prominent example, Barcelona would previously have been all over Isak. They even needed a wide forward. They just didn't have the budget, so had to do a cheaper deal for Marcus Rashford. Clubs like Valencia and even AC Milan are no longer an option for elite players in the way they were 20 years ago.

That new economic hierarchy saw the wealthiest clubs flex their muscle with most of the biggest moves happening early on - from Florian Wirtz to Martin Zubimendi. This newsletter has already covered how this summer represented the "empires striking back", as the old "big six" were back to buying burgeoning stars from the Premier League's middle classes.

Except, now there's a chance for some recompense.

The wealthiest clubs have generally front-loaded their signings, which has left many of them with a lot of players to sell. For all the focus on buying and big targets, some industry figures maintain that the theme of this window is actually "unwanted players". It comes from years of stockpiling, or having the wealth to discard those that don't work out.

You only have to look across Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United.

Many of the less wealthy clubs are certainly looking, and currently eyeing opportunity. Crystal Palace, Fulham and West Ham United, as the busiest examples, want to bring in at least four players each.

They're now hoping they can get good players at knock-down prices. Or, as one source put it, "they want to put the screws on the big boys".

This is all quite a case study in trickle-down economics, even if it now leads to a flood before Monday.

Any such sales could see Manchester United finally move for a goalkeeper and midfielder - maybe still Brighton's Carlos Baleba. Kobbie Mainoo is meanwhile pushing for a loan move, with some sources interpreting that as the young academy graduate keeping a return open in case Ruben Amorim departs sooner rather than later.

Yoane Wissa's future at Brentord still has to be settled, in what is a mirror of the Isak saga. Newcastle themselves are expected to spend even more if Isak does leave. Liverpool are also hopeful of securing Guehi by Monday, although that £10m difference in valuation with Palace nevertheless remains.

Intrigue similarly surrounds both Aston Villa's Morgan Rogers and West Ham's Lucas Paqueta. Villa have sounded out West Ham on Paqueta, which has made some wonder whether there may be more to Rogers' future. Tottenham would love him but this summer's frustrations have ensured they didn't want another high-profile failure. With Villa refusing to even give them a price, Spurs didn't want to go in to negotiations blind. They know the focus that can bring.

And yet the Simons situation could influence that, while releasing pressure, in what might be another chain reaction.

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Since 1992, six hat-tricks have been scored in Premier League matches between Liverpool and Arsenal. Name the scorers of those hat-tricks, and in what seasons they came. If you want to really test yourself, we'll also put in the scorelines for those matches.

Note: six hat-tricks doesn't necessarily mean six different scorers.

Timing is crucial in the early title clash

While Kai Havertz will now undergo surgery that is expected to keep him out until at least October, there is hope at Arsenal that Bukayo Saka could be fit for the weekend of September 13 and the match at home to Nottingham Forest.

Meanwhile, all talk from London Colney is that Eberechi Eze has been training superbly, as he relishes enjoying the move he has always wanted. Mikel Arteta has spent a week drilling him on specific attacking positions... and also set-pieces. Eze's superb deliveries could be all the more important with Saka out.

Some at Liverpool and Arsenal have also expressed surprise that a fixture like this comes so early in the season. That comes from the view that it is better for the entire campaign if there is a bigger build-up to such games. Aside from the anticipation and all of the emotion that surrounds such fixtures, there's also the fitness. Most squads aren't yet close to their best physical condition until mid-September or October. In other words, it would be a better spectacle, and better for the league, if this game was that bit later.

Global plans surround European draw

Around the Champions League draw in Monaco on Thursday, as clubs learned their fixtures for this season, one of the main topics of conversation was league games outside their domestic territories. The theme dominated all of those little discussions in the corridors at the event. Many executives are very attentive to what La Liga are doing, as the Spanish competition plans games in the US. The great irony is that such expansion is a potential threat to the Champions League itself, with how it starts to affect the calendar. Of course, many football figures believe Uefa have their own plans in that regard. Uefa's recent deal with US agency Relevent is viewed as a precursor to possible future matches in America, and their representatives had a heavy presence in Monaco.

Ask Miguel

Are Manchester United now in so deep with Ruben Amorim that the project would literally have to hit rock bottom (or the bottom three) for him to be cut loose? Joe

Thanks Joe. I think "in so deep" are exactly the right words. United have invested so much in this coach, emotionally as much as financially. They've even afforded him licence to say things that you wouldn't necessarily expect from a manager so early in a reign, most notably with how some press conferences have possibly reduced the value of players they want to sell. Amorim's future has almost become a referendum on the leadership, especially with how immersed co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe has been. For their part, the hierarchy would insist it has never been so important to keep a calm head, and that many of the issues are still explainable. Gloom is always surrounding the club given how the last decade has gone, and they have so much work to do. The great question of course is whether his exact work - an adherence to this system - is actually what is right for the circumstances. Can you keep barrelling through if it actually gets very bad? They do know what positions they have to sort. But, with PSR constraints, are they even capable of persevering to an acceptable level until those issues are sorted? Is this where his work is unsuited? I realise I am answering your question with many questions of my own... but this is where they are! Right now, the only certainty is that this leadership absolutely backs the manager.

My question regards how football clubs view their academies, particularly in the context of "pure profit" for PSR. Given that Liverpool, Manchester City, and Chelsea have all sold academy players for substantial sums of money, do you believe this has had an impact on the wider grassroots and leagues' youth players? How do you anticipate this situation to develop in the future? Kyle

Thanks, Kyle. The frenetic chase for young players is obviously not a new battle, but it is one that has considerably escalated over the last few years, principally due to how many other dimensions it has taken on. It is not just about having the best possible talent on the pitch. It's almost a sideline industry for football, especially in a world of PSR. More and more clubs view young players as "assets" that can be sold on, something accentuated under particular types of ownerships. Many capitalists funds, for example, have seen the amount of money moving in that part of the market. This has become a consideration for many parents, as they look to potential pathways. They obviously want their kid to play, to feel they have a chance. On the other side, you are absolutely correct. They also know the value of being at the best possible academies. I don't think it's especially good for the game that this happens, for all manner of reasons. First of all, no matter how the clubs fairly rationalise it, it is obviousl better for any young player if their development is primarily viewed in the context of football over any other motivation. Secondly, in an increasingly globalised game, playing homegrown players is one of the few remaining aspects of football that fosters a club's traditional identity. It maintains that link to the community, and the fans, while feeling more organic. Some big football figures still insist that fielding a largely homegrown team remains one of the purest things you can do in the sport, almost giving clubs a moral dimension, as well as multiple other benefits. Either way, something has obviously gone wrong with the market if this is starting to be incentivised out of the sport. There is one potential solution that I have always felt would be great for the game, while also fixing multiple problems at once, right up to competitive balance and stockpiling of players. That is to mandate that every team has to have three homegrown talents in their starting line-up. You'd immediately see a far greater spread of talent, since clubs wouldn't have the same need to spend as much, as well as earthier teams. That would recreate the effect of the old foreign player rule, except it would also be consistent with EU law. You're also countering that PSR incentive. 

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As you receive this email, I'm on my way to Wembley for our customary squad announcement press conference with Thomas Tuchel. Except, it's not actually at the stadium, but a hotel nearby. Coldplay's Wembley concerts this weekend ensured the Football Association have had to look at alternative venues. You can bet one of the first questions will be whether Tuchel is a fan and whether he's attending.

The obvious choice, all the more so because there are so many unknowns about this season's title race. This still looks almost certain to be an early title clash. You can read more about it here.

Everton are interested, Aston Villa have sounded West Ham United out. Spurs will go for him if they miss out on two other targets. Paqueta's future may be dependent on moves elsewhere, but there could be some late intrigue.

Here are my predictions for the second weekend...

Chelsea 2-0 Fulham

Wolves 0-0 Everton

Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Bournemouth

Man United 1-0 Burnley

Sunderland 2-0 Brentford

Leeds United 1-1 Newcastle United

Brighton 1-1 Manchester City

Nottingam Forest 2-0 West Ham United

Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal

Aston Villa 0-2 Crystal Palace

Last week I got four outcomes right out of 10, although none of the exact scorelines (for example, I went for Liverpool to beat Newcastle United 2-1 rather than 3-2). That puts me on 11 points for the season so far.

Just as a reminder: it's one point for a correct outcome, and three for a correct scoreline. Let me know how you're getting on if you're playing along.

Robbie Fowler, Liverpool 3-0 Arsenal, 1993-94; Liverpool 3-1 Arsenal, 1995-96; Thierry Henry, Arsenal 4-2 Liverpool, 2003-04; Peter Crouch, Liverpool 4-1 Arsenal, 2006-07; Andriy Arshavin, Liverpool 4-4 Arsenal, 2008-09; Roberto Firmino, Liverpool 5-1 Arsenal, 2018-19

Drop me an email and let me know how you did. Thanks for reading – and see you on Monday!

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