What matters in U.S. and global markets today |
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A , and all left a cloud over Friday's stock markets as the is set to test faded easing bets. The bombardment of tariff developments, economic data and earnings news this week has left macro markets slightly nonplussed, but Wall Street futures and global bourses took a dimmer view of the whole picture heading into the final day. |
- As U.S. President Donald Trump detailed his August 1 tariff list, levies, unlike the reduced 15% rates Japan and Europe had negotiated, and the Canadian dollar consequently plumbed two-month lows. . Brazil faces 50% tariffs, though than feared. faces 39%.
- on the otherwise earnings copybook this week, with a poorly received earnings outlook that sent its shares down 7% overnight. lifted its stock 1%. But pharmaceutical stocks in the U.S. and abroad were knocked back after Trump sent letters to 17 major pharma firms outlining how they should slash U.S. prescription drug prices. U.S. index futures and European bourses were down more than 1% ahead of Friday's bell.
- Markets now await the U.S. July payrolls report, with a slowdown in jobs growth to 110,000 last month expected even though immigration curbs have cut the available workforce. A wary Fed is absorbing a week of , with futures seeing less than a 50% chance of rate cuts resuming at the central bank's next meeting in September. U.S. economic surprise indexes are at their most positive since February, while euro zone equivalents are the highest in more than a year. The continues to move higher, with its DXY index at two-month highs as shrugged off mixed Bank of Japan signals to hit its highest point since March.
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It's Friday, so I'll offer you some weekend reading suggestions away from the headlines. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. |
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- President Trump slapped steep tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, pressing ahead with his
- As Trump's new tariff regime clicks into gear on Friday, producers around Europe are feeling the impact, some holding back shipments, others hiking sticker prices or taking a hit to margins.
- Asia's factory activity deteriorated in July as soft global demand and lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs weighed on business morale, private sector surveys showed on Friday,
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the resilient U.S. labor market is currently the primary determinant of monetary policy, a signal that strong July employment figures could snuff out all bets for a September rate cut and reduce the likelihood of any further easing this year.
- Europe and Asia could leverage Trump's "America First" strategy for their own benefit, writes TPW Advisory Founder Jay Pelosky, eventually spurring the development of regional tripolar FX blocs that could
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Weekend reading suggestions |
Here are some articles away from the day-to-day headlines that you may find interesting. |
- POPULATION GROWTH RESET: Compounded by halted immigration and aging, U.S. population growth has halved to an annualized rate of just 0.5% since late 2023 and the 'breakeven rate' of monthly payroll growth that would keep pace up with the labor force has almost halved over the past year to 86,000 in June 2025. So concludes Peterson Institute fellow Jed Kolko, adding: "any given level of monthly payroll growth, consumption growth or output growth reflects a stronger economy than it did a year ago."
- MONETARY CONDITIONS INDEX: A Bank for International Settlements working paper introduces a new monetary policy conditions index (MCI) that combines the impact of both interest rate settings and the size of central bank balance sheets to help policymakers coordinate both aspects. "At the current juncture, the MCI highlights the persistence of large central bank balance sheets - either considering the U.S. or at the global level - loosens the stances of monetary policy."
- EUROPE ROLLS OVER?: In a stinging critique of the European Union's decision to accept higher U.S. tariffs without retaliation and pledge hundreds of billions in spending to boot, Alberto Alemanno, Professor of European Union Law at HEC Paris, writes of "Europe's Economic Surrender". In a column on Project Syndicate, Alemanno said the EU deal highlights the bloc's inability to present a united front and cements its dependence on the United States - rendering it a "prosperous yet powerless appendage" of America.
- INDEPENDENCE AND SPACE: Greater central bank independence from politics actually offers governments more fiscal space by reducing the costs of borrowing over time and allowing higher debt-to-GDP ratios, according to a World Bank working paper that examines the experience of 155 countries over 50 years.
- POWELL AND CREDIBILITY: Using data from online betting platform Polymarket, University of California, Berkeley Professor Barry Eichengreen and co-authors look at how Donald Trump's relentless pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell affects ideas of central bank independence and market outcomes. In a column on CEPR's VoxEU, they show that rising criticism of the Fed boss matches expectations of lower short-term interest rates - along with higher long-term borrowing rates and higher recession fears.
- 'ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL'?: In a critique of the latest benign world economic forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, former IMF official Desmond Lachman accuses the Fund of failing to warn of outsize global macro risks from rising U.S. deficits and protectionism. In a piece published by the American Enterprise Institute think tank, Lachman lambasts the IMF's record on crisis warnings and said it's "difficult to see how (the U.S.) economy too will not come to a sorry end as a result of its public finance excesses."
- LESS RAIN, MORE WHEAT: A revolution in farm management has enabled Australia to produce 15 million metric tons more wheat annually than in the 1980s - despite hotter, drier conditions. The increase is equivalent to 7% of all wheat shipped around the planet each year. In a Reuters Special Report, Peter Hobson shows how the ability of Australia's farmers to produce more owes largely to innovations that changed the seeds they plant, how they plant them and how they cultivate the soil.
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Graphics are provided by Reuters. |
The United States imposed steep import tariffs on goods from dozens of trading partners, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, as Friday's deadline hit, pressing ahead with plans to reorder the global economy. The order listed higher import duty rates of 10% to 41% starting in seven days for 69 trading partners. The seven-day lead time offered some hope that last-minute deals may yet emerge. In the meantime, U.S. federal appeals court judges questioned Trump's use of emergency powers to justify his tariffs as hearings began on Thursday and a final decision is expected later in the month. |
- U.S. July employment report (8:30 AM EDT), July manufacturing surveys from ISM (10:00 AM EDT) and S&P Global (9:45 AM EDT), University of Michigan final July consumer sentiment reading (10:00 AM EDT)
- U.S. corporate earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Moderna, Regeneron, Colgate Palmolive, T Rowe Price, Kimberly-Clark, WW Grainger, LyondellBasell, Dominion Energy, Franklin Resources, Linde, Church & Dwight
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