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Thanks for reading The Briefing, our nightly column where we break down the day's news. If you like what you see, I encourage you to subscribe to our reporting here.
Greetings!
Don't count out Amazon. This was not the commerce cloud giant's week, to be sure. When it comes to the great artificial intelligence cloud race, which now overwhelms all else in tech, Microsoft and Google appear to be ahead. Both companies posted accelerating growth in their cloud units for the June quarter, unlike Amazon. But one element is widely missing from the discussion: how a long-term shift in big tech's business mix toward cloud services could squeeze profit margins for both Microsoft and Google while improving Amazon's overall margin.
Why? Because for both Microsoft and Google, their cloud businesses are much less profitable than their giant software and advertising businesses, respectively. Microsoft's productivity and business processes unit—which includes its business software operations—had an operating profit margin of 57.4% in the June quarter. Its "intelligent cloud" unit, which comprises mostly Azure, had a margin of 40.6%. Its overall margin was 45%. A similar scenario holds for Google: Its cloud margin was 20.7% in the June quarter, while its margin in Google services—mostly advertising—was 40% and its overall margin was 32%.
Microsoft and Google already enjoy faster growth in cloud than in their software and ad businesses. In the most recent quarter, Microsoft's software business expanded 16%, while its cloud business grew 26%. (Azure grew much faster, at 39%—but the cloud business also includes old-fashioned on-premise data center products, which shrank.) Ditto for Google, whose cloud business grew 32% in the quarter, while its services segment grew 12%.
This trend is likely to be accentuated by the growing demand for AI-cloud services. At the same time, there's a risk that new AI products will cannibalize Microsoft's lucrative enterprise software and Google's search advertising businesses. Of course, both companies are working hard to head off those threats. Microsoft has introduced its own AI software services, including Copilot and AI agents, while Google has enhanced its search with AI features. But they face plenty of competition, as this story and this story make clear.
Amazon is in a very different position: its bottom line will benefit from a shift to the cloud. Its Amazon Web Services cloud unit's margin in the June quarter was 33%, far higher than its e-commerce margin of 6.6%, reflecting the razor-thin profits shopping services typically operate on. Indeed, Amazon's margin has improved as AWS has grown: Between 2017 and 2024, AWS rose as a percentage of Amazon's total revenue from 9.8% to 17%. In the same period, Amazon's overall operating margin jumped from 2.3% to 10.7%. (The latter increase likely also reflects the contribution of Amazon's expanding ad operation, as advertising is typically a very high-margin business.)
The focus this week was on AWS' relatively tepid growth rate of 17% in the second quarter, the same rate as for the previous quarter. That's still faster than for every other part of Amazon except its advertising business, which is half the size of AWS. Moreover, there's reason to think AWS' growth rate will pick up. New Street Research analyst Dan Salmon made that point in a report on Thursday, noting AWS' 25% expansion in its backlog of business—customer commitments, which offers a picture of future revenue—in the quarter.
For all three companies, their cloud profit margins aren't likely to improve, given how much the humongous levels of capital expenditures cloud requires will raise depreciation expenses. The real issue is that the overall margins for Google and Microsoft could drop closer to their cloud margins over time. The market is well aware of that risk for Google, whose stock has underperformed that of ad rivals like Meta Platforms for a while now. But investors seem to be ignoring the risk for Microsoft, judging by that stock's premium valuation. At the same time, they may be ignoring Amazon's potential for growth.
The Information's Stories of the Week
The week's tech news was dominated by earnings (see our coverage here and here), as well as Figma's blockbuster IPO, which we covered here, here and here. But we also delivered some insightful stories to help readers understand the inner workings of the biggest players in AI, including this profile of Koray Kavukcuoglu, chief AI architect for Google, and this deep dive into OpenAI's rocky path to GPT-5.
Speaking of OpenAI, despite the technical challenges it is encountering, its business is going gangbusters, as we scooped. Elsewhere in the AI world, Meta Platforms is not taking a break from its aggressive AI investment efforts. We scooped the news that it's looking for partnerships with video AI startups. Both Cohere and Anthropic are raising money, as is Cerebras.
And we scooped the news that AI chipmaker Groq has slashed its projections for 2025 revenue.
On the corporate strategy front, it's becoming clear that big companies are responding to the threat AI agents pose to their business by blocking them, as we reported here and here.
Start your weekend off with this fascinating story about techies' latest obsession: tracking the level of microplastics in their body.
In Other News
• OpenAI has secured $8.3 billion of new commitments from investors including hedge funds Dragoneer Investment Group, Altimeter Capital and D1 Capital Partners, exceeding its earlier goal of $7.5 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the fundraise. This confirms earlier reporting from The Information about the round.
• Tesla was partially to blame for a fatal crash involving its self-driving software, a federal court jury in Florida found on Friday, according to several news reports from the courtroom.
• Vast Data, an AI software and storage startup, is in talks to raise billions in funding from Nvidia and Alphabet's growth-stage venture arm, CapitalG, Reuters reported. The new funding round could value the startup as high as $30 billion, a significant step up from its valuation of $9 billion in 2023.
Today in The Information's TITV
Check out today's episode of TITV with insights from Jeff Nykun at WndrCo and Jai Das at Sapphire Ventures about what Figma's big debut tells us about the IPO market.
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