A congressional race in Tennessee has become surprisingly competitive, and tomorrow's election could be a big sign of where President Donald Trump stands with the country - and the battle his party could face in 2026.
The president won Tennessee's 7th district by 22 points in 2024. But just a year later, a Democrat is putting up a serious bid to wrestle control of the seat from Republicans.
Analysts expect Democrat Aftyn Behn to significantly overperform, even if she does not win the race. It would not only be an embarrassing defeat for the president, but would move the U.S. House of Representatives closer to a Democratic majority.
Over the weekend, Trump gave an additional boost to Matt Van Epps, the Republican, hoping to keep the district in the party's hands. He also spoke at a tele-rally hosted by Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday.
"To the Great People of Tennessee's 7th District, who gave me Record Setting Wins in each of three Elections, I am asking you to get out and VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS. HE WILL BE A GREAT CONGRESSMAN and, unlike his Opponent, he cherishes Christianity and Country Music — She hates them both! This is a very pivotal Election. The whole World is watching. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"
Trump's endorsement is a sign that the momentum that propelled Democrats to massive victories in New Jersey, Virginia, Georgia and California last month shows no signs of slowing down.
The Democrats are bringing out the big guns too. On Monday evening, she will host a tele-rally with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and former vice president Al Gore, who once served as Tennessee's senator.
Regardless of how this race turns out, the fact Republicans have to work this hard in a district they held by double digits just 13 months ago is bad news for them ahead of 2026 midterm elections.
Take the generic ballot, which measures whether voters would prefer to vote for a generic Democrat or Republican for Congress in an election.
Last month, a survey from Marist College, NPR and PBS found that Democrats had a 14-point lead in the generic, which would almost certainly give them a decent majority in the House of Representatives.
That might be on the generous side. But an Economist/YouGov survey found that Democrats have a five-point lead. Only 38 percent of voters approve of the president, an eight-point drop since February when a plurality of Americans approved of him.
All of this portends for a rough 11 months ahead of the 2026 midterms. It does not guarantee that Democrats will win back the majority. But they could take one step closer to gaining control with a win in Tennessee that ten months ago, nobody thought was possible.
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