Flood the zone

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.

Hello Morning Bid readers! 

This week started off with a bang, and the jury is still out on whether it will end with a whimper. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed on Sunday that the Justice Department was threatening to indict him, drawing broad condemnation. But then in a wide-ranging Reuters interview on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said he was not planning to fire Powell, while also signalling that he may hold off on intervening in Iran.

Does this mean investors can take a breath until next week? Probably not. By 2026 standards, Monday is a long way away.

For starters, Trump has claimed he is in a "wait and see" mode on Iran – where over 2,000 people have been killed according to a human rights agency – and is still threatening to acquire Greenland.

The United States also seized another Venezuela-linked tanker, just before Trump met with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who gave the U.S. leader her recently awarded Nobel Peace Prize.

Washington's activity in Venezuela may mark the beginning of a broader U.S. attempt to realign Latin America geoeconomically, limiting the ability of Russia and China to use the Western Hemisphere as a pressure point in global commodity markets. 

Simultaneous geopolitical flare‑ups in Venezuela, Iran and the Black Sea meant energy markets were once again front and center this week. Brent crude prices spiked 9% in the week through Wednesday to a three‑month high above $66 a barrel, only to plunge below $64 on news of Trump's backtracking on Tehran. All the while a large supply glut still looms, creating a treacherous environment for crude investors.

Gold prices also slipped after hitting yet another record high of $4,642.72 an ounce on Wednesday. Despite this pullback, gold may have plenty of tailwinds to support further price increases this year, namely solid central bank appetite and safe-haven demand.

The Japanese yen also experienced a bout of volatility this week. The currency fell on Wednesday to an 18-month low around 160 per dollar, but has since strengthened, partly on comments from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama about the possibility of joint intervention with the United States to defend the flailing currency.

Is more yen volatility likely? Probably, for the simple reason that Japan's economy is returning to something resembling normality for the first time in decades – and investors may take a while to get used to this new reality.

Staying on FX, the main dollar index is on track to strengthen this week despite all the domestic and international political turmoil. While the Trump administration last year had some success rolling back the dollar's near 50% rise over the past 15 years, markets suspect that the 7% drop in 2025 may be it.

Markets also got some more information on U.S. inflation this week, with the release on Tuesday of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI).  While the report showed a slightly softer-than-expected annual increase in core prices, there's little reason for consumers or policymakers to cheer, as inflation may be stronger than it appears.

Major U.S. equity indices, meanwhile, look set to end the week higher, amid the release of mixed quarterly results from banks, and despite a brief mid-week tech-driven sell-off that was halted by the blockbuster earnings release from Taiwanese AI chip juggernaut TSMC. Taipei and Washington also struck a trade deal on Thursday that cut tariffs on many of Taiwan's exports. 

U.S. stocks are continuing to mostly shrug off Trump's unorthodox policies, as they did in 2025 – with the exception of the post-"Liberation Day" ructions – but now that Trump is quickly becoming the market activist-in-chief, that might not be the case for long.

For more commodities and markets news, check out Reuters Open Interest. You can learn why the future of AI may be more about talent than territory, why the London Metals Exchange has enjoyed such a resurgence from its crisis-induced days of 2022, and why uranium prices may rally this year.

As we head into the weekend, check out some reading, listening and watching recommendations from the ROI team.

I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at anna.szymanski@thomsonreuters.com.

ANDY HOME, ROI Metals Columnist: Amanda van Dyke, founder of the Critical Mineral Hub, offers an incisive take on why the U.S. administration is so fixated on Greenland. It's about rare earths but not in the way you might think. 

RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: Energy analyst Gerard Reid has written a thought-provoking blog post on the causes and lessons of recent power outages. Over the past year, Europe has suffered a series of major blackouts that underscore the challenges economies will face during the energy transition. 

MIKE DOLAN, ROI Finance & Markets Columnist: The IMF's Finance & Development magazine includes a strong essay from historian Johan Nordberg on his book, Peak Human: What We Can Learn from the Rise and Fall of Golden Ages. He writes, "Leaders promise safety, greatness, and a return to an imagined golden age through protection and control. It is a familiar and tempting story when the future feels uncertain. Yet history tells a different tale."

GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: Energy software and intelligence firm Orennia offers eight charts that defined 2025.