Iran's H bomb

Hello Power Up readers,

Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed? The answer is "yes."

Ship transits through the vital waterway significantly picked up pace last week following the U.S.-Iran agreement to end the conflict, with dozens of tankers carrying oil and gas making the crossing, to the huge relief of the global economy.

The flow dropped sharply on Sunday, however, after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard declared the strait closed again due to Israel's strikes in Lebanon. The announcement came just as high-ranking U.S. and Iranian officials were supposed to meet in Switzerland to kick off the first round of talks aimed at resolving key issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions within 60 days. President Donald Trump responded to Iran’s actions by threatening to restart the war.

But much of this may be bluster. After a two-day delay, the Sunday talks appeared to go well, according to mediators, who said in a statement that the parties agreed to a mechanism to end the fighting in Lebanon and open a communications line to help ensure safe passages for commercial ships through the contested strait.

Hormuz appears to be open once again, but the weekend events reveal what is most likely the first example of a pattern that will persist for months, if not years, as I wrote last week. Now that Iran has shown it is willing and able to block the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran can flex this “H-bomb” any time it's unhappy with U.S. negotiations, Israeli action in Lebanon, or any other regional issue.

This is a structural risk that energy markets will have to learn to live with. Many countries around the world, particularly in Asia, are taking note – and responding accordingly.

The Iran war highlighted the importance of having large domestic oil reserves to cushion supply disruptions, so countries are now seeking to increase their storage capacity. This, in turn, has massive implications for the global energy market’s supply-demand balance coming out of this conflict. More on this below

 

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As always, don’t hesitate to contact me at ron.bousso@thomsonreuters.com or follow me on LinkedIn with any questions or thoughts.