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Happy Monday! Today's newsletter, edited by Alex Fitzpatrick, is 688 words, a 2½-min. read. Thanks to Sheryl Miller for copy editing.

🚨 Breaking: Peter Mandelson, the former British ambassador to the U.S., was arrested amid an investigation tied to the Epstein files. Get the latest.

Restaurant owners say they can't raise prices any further, even as sales and traffic stabilize, per the latest James Beard Foundation report, shared first with Axios' Kelly Tyko.

• Recent survival tactics — like higher prices and more deliveries — aren't working anymore.

📉 Restaurants that raised prices more than 10% last year were more likely to report lower profits, the group found.

• Diners are skipping second drinks, sharing desserts and trimming add-ons to keep their bills lower.
• Anne McBride, VP of impact at the James Beard Foundation: "There's just not a lot of elasticity left."

🚴‍♀️ Delivery hasn't provided relief either.

• More than 40% of restaurant operators who added online ordering and delivery reported lower profits.
• Delivery platform fees and packaging costs are eating into restaurants' already thin margins, McBride said.

👩‍🍳 Labor is another worry, with around half of operators saying they're understaffed.

• The share of restaurants offering big raises plunged from about 70% in 2024 to 15% last year.
• Nearly 1 in 5 didn't boost pay at all.

👍 Still, most restaurant owners say business conditions improved last year.

• 62% reported good or excellent performance, up from 54% in 2024.
• Nearly 75% say they're optimistic about this year.

Go deeper ... Read the report.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine has been advising President Trump that a military campaign against Iran could be risky, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

• One big threat: Getting stuck in a prolonged conflict.

🪖 Caine's position could be particularly influential. He's Trump's top military adviser, and the president highly respects him.

• One source said Caine is not advocating for a strike, but will support any decision Trump makes.
• Another said the chairman is not skeptical about a military campaign — but "clear-eyed and realistic" about the chances for success and what happens after war starts.

🤨 Vice President J.D. Vance has also raised concerns about Iran lately.

• One source confirmed the VP had been raising questions about the risks and complexity of the operation with military and national security officials, but denied he was outright opposed to striking Iran.
• Vance hopes the talks in Geneva on Thursday will produce a diplomatic breakthrough, but is not optimistic about the odds of a deal — a position shared by many other top officials.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been "sitting on the fence," per two sources.

A senior administration official tells Axios: "Everyone has a job to do and does their job. Rubio isn't figuring out what planes to fly. Caine isn't worrying about diplomatic fallout. The decision to strike, when and how or if at all, has not been made."

• Go deeper.

What the data shows.

AI helps most with the hardest work, not the simplest. Anthropic analyzed 2 million conversations and found Claude's biggest impact is on complex, college-level tasks. The Economic Index tracks adoption across every state and occupation.

See how your state is using AI.

1. ❄️ A powerful blizzard dumped 2 feet of snow or more in parts of the Northeast today, blocking travel and knocking out power for many. The winner — or loser, depending on your POV — so far: eastern Long Island, with 27.5 inches as of mid-morning. Get the latest.
2. 🇲🇽 The State Department is urging Americans in some parts of Mexico to shelter in place amid violence after yesterday's killing of cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes. Six separate attacks have left 25 Mexican National Guard troops dead, officials said today. Get the latest ... See the warning.
3. 🏥 Ralph Abraham is stepping down as the CDC's second-highest-ranking official, continuing the churn among the Trump administration's health team. Go deeper.

Team USA hockey goalie Connor Hellebuyck stood on his head for three periods plus overtime in a 2-1 gold-medal victory against Canada yesterday — so it's a good thing he had some iconic noggin protection.

• 🐟 Hellebuyck's Olympic mask — now going viral — featured American flag imagery, a bald eagle and, yup, a largemouth bass on the side.

🎣 The Michigan-born netminder says he's a big-time fisherman.

• "I wanted to feature a guy actually fishing and catching a bass, because that's what I do in the USA, and I love it." (Watch.)

The next era of discovery.

Anthropic is partnering with the U.S. Department of Energy's Genesis Mission to make Claude and its best engineers available to America's national labs.

The partnership focuses on energy dominance, biological and life sciences, and scientific productivity.

📬 Thanks for reading! Please invite your friends to join PM.