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SpaceX is selling a future built on space and AI. But today, its business is far more dependent on one product—and far more exposed than it appears. We’ve been publishing exclusive reporting on SpaceX’s IPO at The Information for weeks. Here’s what it reveals.

Starlink is carrying the business

One thing stands out: Starlink is doing most of the work. The satellite unit generated $11.4 billion last year—about 61% of revenue—and the majority of profits, effectively funding everything else.

AI ambitions are driving debt—and still playing catch-up

That cash is being pulled in another direction. After absorbing xAI, SpaceX’s debt jumped to $23 billion, with heavy spending on chips and infrastructure pushing the company to a roughly $5 billion net loss.

Despite the ongoing AI investment, xAI still trails OpenAI and Anthropic. It has been hiring aggressively—including from Cursor, an AI coding startup—and is now in talks to acquire the company. Meanwhile, signs of strain are emerging at xAI, where top finance executive Anthony Armstrong has departed and some projects have been paused.

The next growth bet isn’t proven yet

Starlink Mobile is positioned as the next big opportunity, but revenue remains minimal so far—even as SpaceX commits billions more to make the service viable.

The IPO pitch relies on the future

To justify a potential $1T+ valuation, SpaceX is leaning heavily on a long-term vision—selling investors on AI infrastructure and even space-based data centers—while tying Musk’s compensation to a $6.6 trillion outcome.

For investors, the question is simple: can Starlink's cash flow fund everything else?

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