With crude oil back above $100 a barrel, markets are entering a more difficult phase of the conflict.
Seven months ago, traders could still take comfort from healthy stockpiles, spare refining capacity and hopes that the disruption would prove temporary. Today, many of those buffers have either been depleted or exposed as thinner than they appeared.
The most striking example is global crude inventories. According to the International Energy Agency, oil stocks have fallen by 507 million barrels since the conflict began, equivalent to an average draw of roughly 2.8 million barrels per day.
To be fair, more oil has been moving through Hormuz in recent months than during the early days of the war. A growing number of vessels have been using a route along Oman's coastline under U.S. naval protection, allowing some exports to continue.
Kpler estimates that around 5 million barrels per day of crude and fuel products have transited the strait since June, roughly a quarter of pre-war levels. The true figure may be somewhat higher, however, as many tankers switch off their tracking systems while making the journey.
Even so, last week's Iranian attacks on more than a dozen tankers in and around the Gulf served as a reminder that sailing through Hormuz remains very much a high-risk business.
The question facing markets now is simple: how much longer can this balancing act continue before something breaks?
