Hello Power Up readers,
Energy markets have been responding to political signals for weeks ahead of Tuesday's critical US midterm elections. The wait is nearly over. Will President Donald Trump emerge weakened by a Democratic sweep or strengthened by an unexpectedly strong Republican showing? Who knows, but what is even less certain is what any result will mean for the Middle East conflict and energy markets.
Oil prices are down sharply today on renewed hopes that a deal to end the US-Israeli war with Iran may finally be within reach. Iranian negotiators have completed three straight days of talks with Qatari mediators in Doha and are reportedly working on a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of an agreement with Washington.
There is still plenty of ground to cover. Major differences remain over Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and broader security issues. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that Trump has not decided whether to launch new strikes against Iran and would prefer a diplomatic solution.
The bottom line? Energy markets are likely to remain on edge.
That uncertainty is already shaping corporate strategy. The world's largest oil companies reported enormous profits last week thanks to eight months of conflict-driven disruption, soaring oil and gas prices and exceptionally strong refining margins. Yet despite the windfall, they remain reluctant to significantly increase spending, signalling lingering doubts about the industry's long-term outlook.
For more on this, read my column below
As always, feel free to contact me at ron.bousso@thomsonreuters.com or connect with me on LinkedIn with any questions or thoughts.
|
|
|
- Nearly 1 billion barrels of oil have been drained from global inventories since disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz began, sharply reducing the world's emergency supply cushion, according to ADNOC's chief executive.
- OPEC+ left its December production targets unchanged on Sunday, reinforcing expectations that the group will hold off on any major policy shifts until next year as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt exports.
- TotalEnergies expects global oil demand to peak in the years between 2035 and 2040, its chief sustainability officer said on Monday, with potential for demand to decline faster if sales of electric vehicles continue to grow.
- Asia's crude oil imports rebounded in October to pre-war levels, but refined fuel demand remains weak, highlighting where the real strain in energy markets now lies, ROI Energy Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell writes.
- Households in key battleground states are paying $50-$60 more a month for power and gasoline than a year ago, creating a pocketbook issue that could influence control of Congress, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire explains.
|
|
|
BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies reported combined net profits of $56 billion in the third quarter, driven by surging oil and gas prices, record-high refining margins and strong trading results.
BP posted its highest quarterly profit ever, $8.5 billion, as earnings from its refining business rose tenfold from a year earlier. For the other majors, the quarter was generally their second-strongest on record, behind only the extraordinary gains booked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Market conditions remain incredibly favourable. Brent crude has surged around 60% to $114 a barrel since the start of the Iran conflict on February 28, while benchmark European natural gas prices have climbed to their highest levels since late 2022. Diesel prices, meanwhile, remain close to September's all-time high above $200 per barrel as fuel markets continue to grapple with refinery outages and disrupted trade flows.
Yet, Big Oil has so far shied away from major new spending, suggesting the majors do not see today's market conditions as evidence that the industry's long-term outlook has improved.
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Power Up is sent twice weekly. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. Want to stop receiving this email? Unsubscribe here. To manage which newsletters you're signed up for, click here. This email includes limited tracking for Reuters to understand whether you’ve engaged with its contents. For more information on how we process your personal information and your rights, please see our Privacy Statement. Terms & Conditions |
|
| |
© 2026 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
3 Times Square, New York, NY 10036 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
