African leaders are descending on Beijing this week for a three-day summit set to see China tout its place as the key partner for the continent, as Chinese lending for Africa's development has slowed – and even left some countries grappling with heavy debt.
The gathering, which kicks off Wednesday and is the first of its kind in Beijing since 2018, has been hailed by Chinese state media as an opportunity for the partners to "further practical cooperation" under Chinese leader Xi Jinping's vision for a "community with a shared future."
The summit comes at a critical juncture in relations between China and the continent, which is seen by Beijing as an increasingly important bastion of political support as its frictions with the United States rise.
Beijing has in recent years sought to recalibrate its extensive overseas infrastructure spending in the face of its own economic slowdown and criticism of unsustainable lending. This summit is its highest-level forum to reassure African leaders of its commitment to the continent.
Past gatherings of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation have ended with sizeable investment promises and plans for trade expansion – and visiting leaders are expected to have arrived with wish lists for the kinds of Chinese funds and collaboration they'd like to secure.
"The Chinese approach to Africa in the past has been driven by hardware infrastructure projects, funded by Chinese loans," said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
"We know now that model is not going to be operational anymore, because now the debt sustainability issue has become such a big challenge for the continent."
Now, "the world is watching – what is going to happen to China's relationship with Africa next?" she said.
Observers expect to see Beijing tout its shift toward "small yet beautiful" investment projects, a term pointing to supposedly more sustainable projects focused on areas like the environment. Beijing has promoted such projects as key to a new phase of Xi's flagship global infrastructure building scheme known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Chinese leaders are also likely to push for more cooperation on green energy, which could help the world's largest producer of solar panels, photovoltaic batteries and electric vehicles expand its market for these goods as it faces heavy tariffs on such products from US, Canada and the European Union.
African leaders will be looking for aid, loans and investments, especially to help it industrialize or pay off debts, analysts say. Twenty-five African countries are already carrying excess debt or have a high risk of doing so, the African Development Bank Group said in May.
Analysts say China is not the cause of the debt distress that countries across Africa are grappling with or at risk of. But Beijing has been criticized for not acting quickly enough to grant relief to certain borrowers, and observers agree that as the continent's largest bilateral creditor, it can play a key role in helping find solutions.
China has defended its lending practices, its efforts to ease debt repayment and sought to champion its collaboration with Africa as part of a commitment to enable African countries to "pursue economic growth" in the wake of a history of colonization with the West.
African leaders and delegations in Beijing will be working this week to shape that commitment. The continent is feeling "global anxiety in terms of economic headwinds," said Ovigwe Eguegu, a policy analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Development Reimagined.
"Economics dominates the minds of African leaders from the perspective of investment coming from China and also the opening up of China to African exports," he said.
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