😓 The layoff picture

🍂Welcome back and happy autumn! The leaves are dropping but our spirits are high. Today we bring something like good news about the job market and a report on the New York traffic. In 996 words, a 4-minute read.

Companies aren't as quick to the layoff trigger these days.

Why it matters: That's good news for workers. Layoffs are traumatic life events that can take years to recover from financially.

• And it's one reason the labor market held up better than economists expected after the Fed started hiking rates.

Flashback: When the pandemic hit, employers were quick to fire — laying off many people — more than 13 million in March 2020 alone, the highest number over the past 24 years. (At the height of the Great Recession, the number hit 2.7 million.)

• But in the recovery that followed, re-hiring proved daunting.
• Worker shortages were widespread in 2022. Remember stores closing early because there weren't enough people to hire? Or long lines and slow service at your favorite restaurants? Hiring bonuses for dishwashers and gas station attendants?

The impact: Many business leaders learned a lesson. And that meant that many employers held on to workers even amid years of rate hikes and endless recession talk in 2023.

• Outside of the tech industry, which over-hired during the frothy ZIRP times, companies stuck with their teams, Rich Lesser, global chair of Boston Consulting Group, tells Axios.
• "I think a large part of that was because of COVID. They saw how hard it was to remove and then rehire talent," says Lesser.
• The mood among managers: "It took me so long to get this labor force, I'm not letting them go," says Ron Hetrick, a senior economist at Lightcast, a labor market analytics company.

By the numbers: In 2024, the average number of workers that were laid off per month was 1.6 million, per government data.

• That's compared to an average of 1.9 million per month in 2019 considered a very healthy year for the labor market.
• Though companies have slowed hiring — and the unemployment rate has ticked up — they've been more reluctant to let people go, something Axios' Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown have been tracking since 2022.

The big picture: A lower rate of layoffs could be a more permanent condition. The U.S. is facing a potential shortfall of millions of workers in the coming decade in industries like health care, retail, and the skilled trades — sectors that need actual humans, where AI won't make as much of a dent.

• A new report from Lightcast calls it a "storm" on the horizon, and warns that it could be "the largest labor shortage the country has ever seen."
• The report echoes one with similar findings from McKinsey earlier this year.

Between the lines: Just like employers, policymakers will likely have to change their mindset. Immigration in 2023 helped ease labor shortages — but that's a controversial topic in Washington.

The bottom line: It's possible that if economic conditions worsen, CEOs will increase layoffs, says BCGs Lesser.

• "But I think companies are much more cautious than they were in say 2009, when at the first sign of trouble there was more temptation to 'whack whack whack,' and start cutting people. This was not at all what we saw in the last couple years."

If you're planning to visit Axios House during Climate Week, here's four words of advice: Don't take an Uber.

Why it matters: Traffic in midtown Manhattan — where congestion pricing still hasn't been implemented — has literally never been worse, per a new report from New York Senator Brad Hoylman-Sigal and Gridlock Sam Schwartz.

By the numbers: In fiscal 2024, which ended on June 30, the average traffic speed in midtown Manhattan was just 4.8mph, the lowest on record going back to 1971.

• That's in large part because total miles driven in the New York metro area grew a stunning 14% from pre-pandemic levels, as New Yorkers became more likely to order things online for delivery to their door.

Between the lines: There's no such thing as a good day to drive into Manhattan, but this week will see the worst days of the year, thanks to the UN General Assembly and the countless heads of state in town for it.

• Last year during UNGA, average midtown traffic speeds fell as low as 3.2mph; this year will probably be worse.

The big picture: Congestion is deadly.

• Thanks in part to congestion, FDNY Medical Emergency response times increased 70%, from 8.3 minutes to 14.3 minutes, over the past decade.
• A cardiac arrest treated within four minutes has a very high chance of survival; after ten minutes, almost no one lives.

The bottom line: Just walk. The weather's lovely.

BNY surveyed community banks across the U.S. to understand how they're perceived, what they need to stay competitive and thrive, and more.

Why it's important: 97% of banks in the U.S. are community banks. They play a crucial role in advancing the economy.

A BNY leader unpacks the key findings.

Qualcomm has informally approached Intel about a takeover, in what would be the largest tech merger of all time, according to multiple reports.

Why it's matters: This could reshape the U.S. tech industry, and become the next president's first major antitrust case.

• It also reflects the rapid fall from grace for Intel, which once was the world's largest chipmaker.

By the numbers: Intel's stock price has fallen by 36% over the past year, even after a small boost on Friday from the Qualcomm news.

• Its current market cap is around $93 billion, whereas Qualcomm is valued at around $188 billion.
• The largest tech merger to date was Microsoft buying Activision Blizzard for $69 billion. There also was Broadcom's $117 billion bid for Qualcomm in 2017, but that deal was blocked by former President Trump on national security grounds.

The big picture: Intel's troubles began when it missed the bus on chips for mobile phones — the area where Qualcomm is particularly strong.

• They were then compounded when it also missed the bus on the types of chips made by rival Nvidia, which now is worth $2.85 trillion.

Between the lines: Intel is a major recipient of capital commitments from the CHIPS Act, which is aimed at increasing domestic chipmaking capacity.

The bottom line: Intel's shareholders probably don't care that Qualcomm has never operated a chipmaking fab. The bigger sticking point could be U.S. antitrust regulators, given the sheer size and strategic importance of both companies.

AI is becoming a key part of community banks' strategic vision, according to a new BNY survey.

Looking ahead: Nearly 40% of community banks plan to incorporate AI and machine learning into their operations within the next five years.

Tap into 7 other intriguing insights on community banks.

Thanks to Kate Marino for editing and Mickey Meece for copy editing, and to you for sharing some of your Monday with us.