🌀 Hurricane health risks

Thursday, already?

🕶️ Sunny. 77°/59°.

• Sounds like: "Keep It Together," Guster.

Today's newsletter is 864 words, a 3.5-minute read.

Hurricanes and tropical storms have long-term health consequences, generating 7,000 to 11,000 excess deaths over the 15 years following the event, a new study finds.

Why it matters: The study demonstrates that long-term public health impacts are a concern in the wake of Hurricane Helene and Milton's devastating damage and long after direct deaths and damage is accounted for.

Zoom in: The new research, published in the journal Nature, shows many higher excess deaths from the social and economic upheaval left in the wake of tropical cyclones in the U.S. than expected, coauthor Solomon Hsiang of Stanford University told Axios.

• In fact, the study shows that tropical cyclones account for roughly 3.2% to 5.1% of all deaths annually in the Lower 48 states, or about 55,280 to 88,080 excess deaths.

The intrigue: The lack of research on indirect deaths long after storms hit — often from stress that worsens cancer, heart disease and other chronic conditions — has hidden the full health burden of these storms, Hsiang said.

• He noted that those impacts can also arise from a series of events traced back to storms, such as costly home repairs that forces people to dip into their savings, thus reducing their ability to spend on health care.

By the numbers: Whereas NOAA reported that the 501 storms studied caused an average of 24 direct deaths, the paper estimates that the average tropical storm or hurricane "indirectly accelerated the death" of about 7,170 to 11,430 people.

The big picture: States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones tend to have less vulnerability, measured in indirect deaths following a storm, compared to those that get hit on a less frequent basis.

• Southeastern states have the highest proportion of deaths attributable to tropical cyclones, including 13% of deaths in Florida, and 11% of deaths in North Carolina.

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Finally, some good weather news.

State of play: Florida fall is here, at least for the next *checks notes* day and a half.

• A cold front swept through yesterday, pushing down temperatures through the day and overnight, National Weather Service meteorologist Paul Close told Axios.
• It all culminated in this glorious morning of breezy, window-opening sweater weather.

Context: It's a good thing, too, because we're coming off "Tampa Bay's most oppressive summer on record," as WFLA's Jeff Beradelli put it.

• Tampa saw the most consecutive days in history in which temperatures didn't fall under 70 degrees, Close said.
• The 163-day streak ended with Milton. The previous record was 155 days in 2018.

What's next: It'll warm up this weekend, Close said — but not quite to summer levels. Highs will be in the mid-80s, and the breeze is sticking around.

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⚖️ Amendment 4 organizer Floridians Protecting Freedom filed a federal lawsuit against the DeSantis administration over its threat to prosecute TV stations that air a pro-abortion ad. (Miami Herald)

🗳️ Pasco County Supervisor of Elections Brian Corley says his office will verify and count the mail-in ballots that residents placed beneath his front door after Milton. (Tampa Bay Times)

🍻 St. Pete's OctoberWest craft beer festival will donate some of its proceeds to a local chapter of the Mutual Aid Disaster Relief. (Creative Loafing)

Thoughtful design and superior home technology create the ideal space to discover a more relaxed lifestyle.

Tour studios and one- to three-bedroom apartment homes in Westshore Tampa that offer a well-balanced lifestyle where you're minutes from your next flight or a short drive to a good night.

The National Hurricane Center's track forecasts for the eventual path of Milton were unusually accurate, starting from the first storm advisory.

Why it matters: The early confidence in the eventual path of Milton allowed officials time to warn the public and prepare communities for the powerful storm.

Zoom in: Milton, which made landfall last week in Siesta Key, was always predicted to end up coming ashore near Tampa Bay.

• This never wavered, despite typical uncertainties in track forecasts at long lead times. In fact, the NHC's track forecasts for Milton outperformed their typical average error rates for such storms, according to Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami.
• "The track forecasts of the landfall location were exceptional," McNoldy told Axios. "I think we all wish they could always be that accurate for so long. It doesn't change the fate of the eventual impacts, but it certainly helps with preparation and evacuation."

Between the lines: Unlike other storms in which computer models tend to waffle between various landfall locations, the most reliable models were in lockstep on the track throughout the storm's evolution.

The bottom line: Forecasts for Milton, both regarding its track and intensity, are likely to be studied for years as meteorologists train on new tools and refine how to communicate uncertainty.

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The bulk of Tampa Bay homes were built in the 1980s, according to the latest census data.

By the numbers: Almost 20% of the metro's housing units were built in the 1980s, 7 percentage points higher than the national average that decade.

The big picture: Existing homes aren't getting any younger, and sellers are still feeling the rate-lock effect.

• This opens the window for a remodeling wave, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Yes, but: Buyers are keen on new builds, given existing supply constraints and (sometimes) better deals to be found.

What we're watching: Energy efficiency, kitchen and bath upgrades, and maximizing utility are among the top renovation trends.

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📖 Kathryn is reading "Detransition, Baby" by Torrey Peters.

😴 Yacob is off.

This newsletter was edited by Jeff Weiner.