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😀 It comes in twos

Plus:🛬 Low Spirit | Friday, October 04, 2024
 
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Axios Closer
By Hope King and Nathan Bomey · Oct 04, 2024

Friday ✅.

Today's newsletter is 692 words, a 2.5-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 0.9%.

  • Biggest gainer? Albemarle (+8.3%), the specialty materials company, on a report that Rio Tinto is considering lithium acquisitions.
  • Biggest decliner? Extra Space Storage (-3.9%), the real estate investment trust. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
 
1 big thing: America's one-two punch of good economic news
By
 
Illustration of Benjamin Franklin with two thumbs up and grimacing smile.

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

 

A blowout jobs report this morning suggests the labor market is thriving, bucking fears that a recession is ahead. And the port strike — feared to cause widespread economic damage — is over.

Why it matters: These two risks have hung over the economy, with just weeks to go until the election, when economic sentiment is expected to sway voters.

  • What they're saying: "Good news all around today for the frontline workforce," Edward Hearn, an economist at payroll processing firm UKG, wrote in a note.

The big picture: Last night, the dockworker union announced a tentative deal with the United States Maritime Alliance.

  • Reports suggest the two parties agreed on a pay bump for workers of about 62% over the next six years. Economists had warned that without a speedy resolution, the strike could weigh on GDP and the labor market — and result in emptier shelves ahead of the holiday season.
  • This contract will be extended until Jan. 15 — a possible problem for the next administration if a solution isn't reached.

Then came the rosy jobs report. For months, the labor market had been showing cracks. It turns out that was a statistical illusion.

  • The economy added 254,000 jobs — the most since the start of 2024. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% (unrounded: 4.051%).
  • Adding to the upbeat report: Job gains in July and August were revised significantly higher, confirming the summer slowdown that worried economists didn't happen.

The bottom line: The economy isn't perfect, but it's still an enviable backdrop that includes somewhat cheaper borrowing costs and falling inflation.

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2. Charted: Too low terrain
By
 
A line chart that depicts the daily stock price of Spirit Airlines from January 2 to October 4, 2024. The stock peaked at $16.35 on January 2, then declined sharply, reaching a low of $1.685 by October 4, indicating a significant downward trend throughout the period.
Data: Yahoo Finance; Chart: Axios Visuals

Spirit Airlines has been weighing options to restructure its balance sheet — including a potential bankruptcy filing, according to a WSJ report.

  • Shares closed down 24.6% today, off 90% now for the year.
  • A Spirit spokesperson referred us to CEO Ted Christie's comments from an August earnings call, in which he called "productive conversations" with bondholders "a priority."

Context: The budget carrier has been grappling with widening losses amid growing competition and an engine recall that grounded part of its fleet.

  • That's expanded the shadow of its $3.3 billion debt load, which includes over $1.1 billion in bonds coming due within a year.

The bottom line: The airline's ability to return to profitability has been in question since its sale to JetBlue was scrapped earlier this year.

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3. What's happening
 

🛻 Rivian reported fewer deliveries in Q3 than expected and lowered its 2024 production forecast, due to an ongoing supplier issue. (CNBC)

🇪🇺 The EU voted to impose tariffs as high as 45% on China EV imports. (Bloomberg)

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4. Chasing Satoshi
By
 
Illustration of a shadowy figure wearing a Bitcoin sign sideways as a mask.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

With bitcoin's popularity higher than ever, HBO is diving into one of the tech world's new favorite pastimes: "Unveiling" the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto.

Catch up fast: Satoshi, for crypto newbies, was the name used by the anonymous creator of the world's biggest cryptocurrency.

Driving the news: On Tuesday night, HBO will air "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery," a documentary from director Cullen Hoback.

The intrigue: The doc's official trailer promises to "dive into the origins of Bitcoin and the identity of its creator."

  • Some reports claim it will name Satoshi. Bettors have wagered nearly $400,000 on Polymarket on who it will be.
  • (We asked HBO whether there's a specific reveal, but haven't heard back.)

The big picture: Knowing who Satoshi is could shine a light on their motivations. We'd also learn who (if anyone) has access to their $68 billion pile of coins, Axios Crypto reporter Brady Dale says.

Reality check: Satoshi was pretty good at this whole cryptography thing, and real proof of who they are may never be found.

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5. Latina GDP is skyrocketing
By
 
Latinas celebrates Mexico Independence Day with a parade down Fifth Avenue, in the Sunset Park neighborhood of the Brooklyn borough of New York City.

Latinas celebrates Mexico Independence Day with a parade down Fifth Avenue in Brooklyn. Photo: Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images

 

The total economic output of U.S. Latinas has grown by more than 51% since 2010 and accounts for about 5.6% of the overall U.S. GDP, a new report finds.

  • The 2021 U.S. Latina GDP was $1.3 trillion, per the report from Bank of America, in partnership with UCLA and California Lutheran University.

Stunning stat: The total economic output of Hispanic women in 2021 was larger than the entire economy of the state of Florida, and only the GDPs of California, Texas and New York are larger, per the report.

Keep reading.

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Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Carlos Cunha.

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