Trump trades shine, China data darkens

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets

By Harry Robertson

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From U.S. small-cap stocks to bitcoin to the dollar, some investors are seeking out assets that can prosper under a second Donald Trump presidency.

The former president has taken the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets, although Harris held a marginal lead in a Reuters/Ipsos poll this week.

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 19, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

So-called Trump trades focus on those parts of the global economy likely to feel the force of tariff hikes, deregulation, and bigger deficits.

The Mexican peso, for example, is down 4% from its September high as investors fret about tariffs. Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group are up more than 140% since Sept. 23.

Some analysts see the Trump effect in the recent rise in bond yields and the dollar. The difficulty is separating politics from economics.

Data on Thursday showed U.S. retail sales increased 0.4% in September, more than anticipated, while weekly jobless claims fell unexpectedly.

Treasury yields rose as investors slightly moderated their bets on further Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting the dollar.

The figures bolstered hopes of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, helping the Dow Jones index hit a record high and keeping the S&P 500 near a record too.

S&P 500 futures were higher on Friday, while European stocks climbed - tech companies in particular.

Netflix added to a broadly upbeat start to the third-quarter earnings season on Thursday, topping subscriber targets.

Oil prices held steady on Friday even after Hezbollah said it would escalate its conflict with Israel following the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.