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🏛️ Axios Thought Bubble: Dems' big sprint

👀 What we're watching | Saturday, November 09, 2024
 
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Axios AM Thought Bubble
By Mike Allen · Nov 09, 2024

🏛️ In this special report for AM readers, Hans Nichols, author of our forthcoming Axios Hill Leaders newsletter, and the Axios Congress team — Stef Kight, Andrew Solender, Juliegrace Brufke and Stephen Neukam — take you inside the big finish for the 118th Congress.

  • Smart Brevity™ count: 473 words, a 2-min. read.
 
 
1 big thing: Dems' last gasp
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Democrats have less than two months to try to jam through judicial nominations — their last taste of power for at least two years.

  • History is watching whether Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer can break Mitch McConnell's record of confirming 234 judges. Schumer is 21 short and can taste a new record.

Why it matters: Welcome to the lame-duck session, where both parties will pick their next leadership teams — including the Republican who'll be Senate majority leader.

  • Congress returns Tuesday. The main action of real substance will be judicial confirmations: Schumer plans committee markups every week to get more judges to the floor — fast.
  • His consolation prize: He'll be elected minority leader — the top Democratic job, but one with exponentially less power than his current gig.

🔥 Senate Republicans have a hot, contested, secret ballot race on Wednesday between three senators:

  • Most Senate insiders think John Thune of South Dakota will win the majority leader race. He's widely popular — except with the Trump crowd (although Thune has made overtures).
  • John Cornyn of Texas, Thune's chief rival for the top job, is well-liked, too.

🔍 The intrigue: The MAGA meat-eaters love the dark-horse candidate for leader, Sen. Rick Scott of Florida. Trump has dismissed Scott as a serious contender, as Axios first reported. But nothing's ever final for Trump.

  • Several of Trump's advisers want him to give Scott a full-throated boost. Thune wants Trump to stay out of it.

🌶 The hottest House leadership race to watch: Speaker Mike Johnson's two-month gauntlet if, as expected, the GOP keeps the majority.

  • Without protective cover from Trump, a speaker vote fiasco 2.0 is a distinct possibility. Johnson will easily win the internal GOP vote next week, but he has ruled out deals with Dems to win the speaker vote in January.

With a four- or five-seat margin (tops!), that's cutting it close.

  • The biggest red flag for Johnson is if the government funding fight goes sideways in December. It's against his interests to push through a big deal with Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries just days before a speaker vote.

⚡️Johnson has one BIG leverage point vs. Dems.

  • If "we don't do appropriations by the end of the year, as we know, we've got to do it in the first quarter, and we'll be in charge," Johnson told us in an exclusive interview.

A short government shutdown is fully possible, sources tell us.

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A message from PhRMA

Seniors are feeling the true cost of drug price "negotiations"
 
 

Some Medicare patients will pay more for medicines. Others may not be able to get their medicines.

  • 89% of insurers and PBMs say they plan to reduce access to medicines in Medicare Part D because of the Inflation Reduction Act.

Higher costs and less access. That's not what seniors were promised.

Learn more.

 

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