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🆚 A grim transaction

Plus: The F-35B mystery | Wednesday, November 06, 2024
 
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Axios Future of Defense
By Colin Demarest · Nov 06, 2024

Good morning, everyone! Some exciting news ...

  • We're hosting an event Nov. 13. We'll chat with the Pentagon's Bill LaPlante, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Anduril Industries CEO Brian Schimpf and more.
  • Interested? Request an invite here.

🗳️ Situational awareness: I'm digging into what a second Donald Trump term means for the future of defense. Got insights? Hit reply!

Available today: The R-GPS players, soap dispenser allegations and the "18 Theses."

Today's newsletter is 1,088 words, a 4-minute read.

 
 
1 big thing: A new face of global war
 
Vladimir Puting and Kim Jong Un, two men in dark formalwear, clink red wine glasses.

Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Photo: Vladimir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images

 

American weapons could very soon kill North Koreans fighting in Eastern Europe under a Russian flag. What a wild sentence to type.

Why it matters: War is now global, as authoritarian regimes increasingly work together to oppose the West, supply chains criss-cross continents and technology hammers home a point I've made before — that oceans can no longer protect us

Driving the news: At least 10,000 North Korean troops are in the Kursk region, encroaching on the Ukrainian border.

  • Those forces are training with artillery and drones and donning local uniforms and equipment.

There are other examples of this trend:

  • Iranian drones and missiles flow to a constellation of militants, including Houthi rebels in Yemen, who scare off German naval ships, chew through American interceptors and run up a tab on commercial shippers.
  • Chinese machine tools and microelectronics feed foreign factories, including in Russia, where parts propel an unjust invasion.

My thought bubble: Kim Jong Un is likely trading Vladimir Putin warm bodies for arsenal advancements and a peek at modern combat. This is a grim transaction.

  • "Kim Jong Un didn't hesitate to sell out [his] young people and troops as cannon-fodder mercenaries," South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun told reporters at the Pentagon via translator.

What we're watching: When untested North Korean troops engage Ukrainians, the cloistered regime will gain battlefield experience.

  • That's bad news for South Korea. It, too, spells trouble for U.S. goals abroad.
  • A handpicked, bipartisan commission already warned Washington was ill-prepared for a conflict that could kick off with Russia or China and later metastasize. (My piece about it was taken way out of context by the Trump campaign.)

What they're saying: "The prospect of large war, and global war, is becoming increasingly likely," George Barros, the Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, told me.

  • "Kim Jong Un has an agenda for what he wants to do in Asia, as does Xi Jinping."

Zoom in: Russia is hemorrhaging troops. Its combat losses exceed 690,000, with casualties in some places hitting 1,200 a day.

  • Subbing in North Korean soldiers is no panacea. For one, there will be language barriers, frustrating command and control.
  • "The Russian mil-blogs are already talking about this huge need for Korean linguists," Barros said.

Zoom out: The Russia-North Korea arrangement drags out a fight Moscow once promised would be a blitz.

  • If the contribution is a one-time thing, no biggie. But if this becomes a habit, Ukraine will feel the difference.

The bottom line: "We know that Putin has gone tin-cupping to get weapons from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Iran," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said.

  • "Turning to a pariah state like North Korea for troops just underscores how much trouble he is in."

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2. Not your mom's TomTom
 
An artist's rendering of a satellite above Earth. North and Central America and the Pacific Ocean can be seen from above.

A mock-up of a Nexus satellite, floating above the United States. Photo: Courtesy of Astranis

 

The U.S. military tapped a mix of small and large companies to design an alternate network of GPS satellites it says it needs pronto.

Why it matters: Washington and its friends abroad cannot afford to lose GPS access, which supports battlefield movements and keeps economies afloat.

  • An outage could cost $1 billion a day, according to one report sponsored by the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

By the numbers: The Space Force selected Astranis, Axient, L3Harris Technologies and Sierra Space to design innovative, more cost-effective "Resilient GPS" satellites.

  • It's a $2 billion program.
  • Eight satellites could be ready for launch in 2028. Additional batches should follow.

Threat level: The U.S. advantage in space is waning. Russia and China want to be top dog, and are developing space weapons to knock out satellites.

  • Electronic jamming and GPS spoofing has greatly complicated the Russia-Ukraine war and life on its edges.

What they're saying: "Space enables the prosperity and security of our nation every day, and it is clear that our competitors have taken note," U.S. Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman said in a statement.

What's next: This project has multiple phases. One or more companies will build prototypes following a design review.

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3. Quick hits
 
An F-35 lines up for aerial refueling. A person can be seen on the left edge of the frame. The sky is blue with few clouds.

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II refuels midair. Photo: Evan Jones/DVIDS

 

🔋 An electrical malfunction, challenging flight conditions and human error contributed to the 2023 crash of an F-35B, which flew pilotless for dozens of nautical miles before crashing in rural South Carolina.

  • Why it matters: The (temporarily) vanishing aircraft captivated the public and led one lawmaker to joke: "How in the hell do you lose an F-35?" Now, the investigation is public and offers a detailed accounting of the saga.
  • 💭 My thought bubble: Read the Defense News rundown, which pulls back the curtain on the pilot, his decisions and the Marine Corps fallout.

💵 Kraus Hamdani Aerospace is supplying the U.S. Army and Joint Special Operations Command its solar-powered K1000ULE drone in a deal worth $20 million.

  • Why it matters: The arrangement shows how military spending can springboard green-oriented companies, Axios Pro's Alan Neuhauser wrote.
  • 💭 My thought bubble: These unmanned aircraft will play a critical role in extending the Army's network, which underpins almost everything soldiers do.

🔥 Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt wants the U.S. Army to ditch "useless" tanks in favor of drones, Bloomberg, the New York Post and others reported. Schmidt was speaking at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia.

  • Why it matters: A tank's place on the battlefield of the future is fiercely debated. Outright replacing them with drones — no matter the size — is a hot, hot take.
  • 💭 My thought bubble: Tanks will look radically different in 10, 15, 20 years. But they aren't disappearing.

🧼 Boeing overcharged the U.S. Air Force almost $1 million for C-17 parts, including a 7,943% markup on soap dispensers, according to the Defense Department inspector general. (Boeing disputed the conclusions, according to the AP.)

  • Why it matters: Overpaying for parts could reduce the total amount purchased and available. That hurts C-17 readiness worldwide.
  • 💭 My thought bubble: Imagine buying an Arizona iced tea for $78 and some change.
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A message from Anduril

Anduril unveils Bolt family of AAVs
 
 

Anduril has revealed its Bolt family of man-packable, vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) Autonomous Air Vehicles that deliver simple and flexible capability for a variety of missions.

  • Anduril is transforming U.S. and allied defense capabilities with software and hardware.

Learn more.

 
 
4. Check this out
 
A Palantir Technologies graph showing the consolidation of the defense sector. It is yellow with black lines and details.

Defense primes gobbled up smaller firms en masse. Photo: Courtesy of Palantir Technologies

 

Shyam Sankar, the Palantir Technologies chief technology officer, penned a defense industry manifesto. It includes many of his onstage zingers.

Why it matters: It also features the above chart, which shows how Lockheed Martin, Boeing, RTX, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics came to dominate the post-Cold War landscape.

What they're saying: "I nail these theses to the Pentagon Metro entrance not because I hate the DOD, but because I want America to win," Sankar said on X.

  • "American industry gave us victory and an American Century. It can save us again."

Go deeper: Palantir CTO: Pentagon better off "spending half as much" twice as fast

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A message from Anduril

Anduril introduces munition variant of Bolt
 
 

Bolt-M arms ground forces with precision firepower, automating the flight behaviors required to accurately track and strike targets. It enables operators to focus on four simple decisions: where to look, what to follow, how to engage and when to strike.

Learn more.

 

Shoutout to Nicholas Johnston for editing and Matt Piper for copy editing.

👋🏼 Thanks, as always, for reading and sharing. Tell your friends to subscribe, here.

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