When Donald Trump first came to the White House, he did so under rocky circumstances. Yes, he had beaten Democrats in the Blue Wall of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. But he also lost the popular vote — and Democrats had picked up Senate seats in Illinois and New Hampshire, as well as flipping a few seats in the House.
Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House at the time, would regularly say, "I haven't seen the tweet," when asked about Trump's worst Twitter rants. Mitch McConnell would blow off anything Trump said as he turned the Senate into a judicial confirmation factory. John McCain famously voted down Trump's planned repeal of Obamacare. Senate Republicans balked at his desire to get rid of the filibuster. After the January 6 riot, ten House Republicans voted to impeach Trump and seven Republican senators voted to convict him.
That won't be the case this time. This time, Trump comes to Washington with an overwhelming mandate, having swept all seven battleground states. McCain is dead. Mitt Romney will leave the Senate at the end of this year. Ryan is out of politics and Liz Cheney is deemed a heretic. McConnell will leave his post as Republican leader at the end of this year, too.
In turn, many of the new Republicans will be distinctly of the Trump flavor. Jim Banks, the next senator from Indiana, voted to overturn the 2020 election results. Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz both easily won their re-election. Whoever succeeds McConnell as Republican leader — be it Senate Minority Whip John Thune or John Cornyn of Texas — they will be obligated to follow him closely. Speaker Mike Johnson led the legal efforts on overturning the 2020 election results and is a much more hardline ideologue than his predecessors.
In short, this will be a much more pliable Republican Congress.
As of right now, it's unclear whether Democrats will flip the House of Representatives or Republicans will hold it. But it will likely come down to a narrow margin, as was the case in the last two Congresses.
Either outcome will give Trump an advantage. The 117th Congress — the Democratic trifecta during Joe Biden's first two years in office — showed that when Democrats have a narrow majority, the voices of moderates like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema become stronger. If he becomes speaker of the House, Hakeem Jeffries knows that occasionally, some of his more endangered members will need to break from Democrats and vote with Trump to hold their seats.
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