💰 Axios PM: New econ fears

Good Thursday afternoon. Today's newsletter, edited by Sam Baker, is 572 words, a 2-min. read. Thanks to Sheryl Miller for copy editing.

🏛️ Situational awareness: Sen. Elissa Slotkin — a freshman from Michigan who's a former CIA analyst — will deliver the Democratic response to President Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday.

• Rep. Adriano Espaillat of New York City, the first Dominican American in the House, will give the Democratic Spanish-language response.

Worries about the outlook for U.S. economic growth are starting to mount, Axios Macro co-authors Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown report.

• They're tremors at this point, not an earthquake. But economists, banks and consumers are all feeling them.

😬 What they're saying: As the federal government and its contractors keep shedding jobs, "the risks are rising that households may begin to hold back purchases of cars, computers, washers, dryers, vacation travel plans, etc.," wrote Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, in a note out this morning.

• Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid said in a speech this morning that "discussions with contacts in my district, as well as some recent data, suggest that elevated uncertainty might weigh on growth."
• "As US data soften, clients have started asking us about the prospect of a US recession," Barclays' Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Marc Giannoni wrote in a note yesterday. "We think the odds are still low, but have clearly risen."

💡 Yes, but: These warning signs are mostly showing up so far only in soft data, like surveys of business and consumer sentiment.

• The hard data shows little evidence of deterioration in spending, investment or hiring.

👀 What we're watching: Jobless claims spiked last week, according to new data released this morning — another warning sign.

• Jobless filings in Washington hit their highest level since March 2023, though filings in Maryland and Virginia fell.

Go deeper.

President Trump said today that he trusts Russian President Vladimir Putin to abide by a peace agreement in Ukraine, despite fears that the emerging blueprint for that pact includes too few protections against reinvasion.

• 🇷🇺 "I think he'll keep his word," Trump said ahead of a meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. "I've known him for a long time now. ... "We had to go through the Russia hoax together."
• Starmer is in Washington to try to make the case for a more Ukraine-friendly approach than the Trump administration has so far embraced. French President Emmanuel Macron made a similar pitch earlier this week.

bp supports 300,000+ U.S. jobs. Like the science, engineering and skilled labor jobs that produce the energy products Americans rely on. In Washington state, we're refining traditional fuel and have begun producing renewable diesel from agricultural waste.

See how else bp is investing in America.

1. 📇 Thousands of fired USAID employees were given 15 minutes today to clear out their personal belongings from the agency's former headquarters. Roughly 90% of its contracts for humanitarian and development aid are being canceled. Go deeper.
2. 🚀 Blue Origin is planning a space flight this spring with an all-woman crew. The mission will feature CBS anchor Gayle King, pop star Katy Perry, aerospace engineer Aisha Bowe, civil rights activist Amanda Nguyen, film producer Kerianne Flynn, and Lauren Sánchez, Jeff Bezos' fiancée. Go deeper.
3. 🛒 Target will open small Warby Parker eyewear shops in some locations — doubling down on a store-within-the-store strategy that already includes partnerships with Apple, Disney, Levi's and Ulta Beauty. Go deeper.

D.C.'s cherry blossoms will hit "peak bloom" March 28–31, the National Park Service said today.

• Peak bloom occurs when 70% of the Tidal Basin's Yoshino cherry blossoms have opened. The trees usually bloom for seven days.

bp added $130+ billion to the U.S. economy over the last two years. From people working to produce oil and gas in the Gulf of America and Permian Basin, to investments in refining and bioenergy projects nationwide, and so much more.

See all the ways bp is investing in America.

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