Geopolitics dominates, before Fed takes the stage

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Wayne Cole, Chief Correspondent, Treasury

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You know it's crazy times, when speculation Putin sent his body double to Alaska doesn't sound so outlandish. What does seem clear is that President Trump has shifted back to echoing Moscow's line, tweeting Kremlin talking points about Crimea and Zelenskiy.

Putin's position seems to be that Ukraine should give up all the land Russia has taken, and much that it has failed to take in more than three years of fighting. This has been repeatedly ruled out by Zelenskiy and European leaders, and it's notable they will be by his side in Washington when he meets Trump later today.

U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hand with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as they meet to negotiate for an end to the war in Ukraine, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S., August 15, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

Markets have judged there is a diminished threat of further U.S. sanctions or tariffs on Russian oil exports, and oil prices are down modestly with Brent off 0.3%.

Share markets are mostly firmer as Japan and Taiwan make more records, and Chinese blue chips scale a 10-month top.

European stock futures are up 0.2% or so, as are Wall St futures. Valuations have been underpinned by a solid earnings season as Goldman notes S&P 500 EPS grew 11% on the year and 58% of companies raised their full-year guidance.

This week's results will provide some colour on the health of consumer spending with Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart all reporting.

For monetary policy the main event will be the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole jamboree where Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework on Friday, though there doesn't seem to be a Q&A as yet.

ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are on panel discussions.

Futures are about 85% priced for a Fed rate cut in September so anything less than dovish from Powell would be a setback for debt markets.

While Fed expectations are anchoring short-term yields, the long end continues to fret about inflation, budget deficit and the politicisation of monetary policy, so steepening the yield curve.

European bond yields have also been on the rise, perhaps in part on a realisation of how much governments are going to have to borrow to cover increased defence spending.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

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