A luxury tax to attract the biggest stars?

A luxury tax to attract the biggest stars?

Premier League executives have begun proposing solutions to the "problem" of why the competition has so few Ballon d'Or places. Also this Friday:

As Ousmane Dembélé held up the Ballon d'Or, and public debate immediately rose over whether he truly deserved it, another discussion was already breaking out among senior Premier League figures. It wasn't about whether it should have been the Paris Saint-Germain forward or Lamine Yamal. It was why no Premier League players were even part of the debate. Worse, they weren't really close. Mohamed Salah was the highest English-based player, in fourth, but he is understood to have been well behind the top two in terms of votes. After that came Cole Palmer in eighth and Gianluigi Donnarumma in ninth – though the goalkeeper obviously got in on the back of his PSG performances. And that was about it.

For the Premier League, the problem is not new. It's a clear and long-term trend. Last year's winner, Rodri, was an aberration. Since 2000, the competition has produced only three winners and 13 top-three finishes. Since 2020 – the Covid disruption often seen as the landmark moment when the Premier League pulled away from the rest of Europe – it has been just one and four. Seventeen per cent to 26 per cent. Hardly a reflection of how the Premier League pays more than £2.5bn extra in wages compared with any other league.

The issue, clearly, is no longer money. In the early 2000s the Premier League couldn't yet compete with the biggest Spanish and Italian clubs for star players. Now, it routinely outbids them. AC Milan have lost transfer targets to Brentford – a sentence unimaginable in 2007.

So even if you think the modern Ballon d'Or is nonsense, something deeper is going on.

Some Premier League executives are now floating the idea of a "luxury tax" to enable more star signings. While a few officials have nodded along, it hardly seems joined-up thinking to give the richest league in the world exemptions to somehow spend even more.

There remains, nevertheless, a clear disconnect between the Premier League's unique global status as a "premium product" – to use one sport leader's words – and the element that usually defines that status: big, box-office stars.

The lack of such players is all the more surprising given how commercially savvy the Premier League is, right down to how its contracts are structured. The league has very few players who instantly command global attention in a way that translates into votes for these awards. That's why this is about more than the Ballon d'Or. It's about the calibre of player who makes the world stop and watch. Who has reached that level in England lately? Salah and Erling Haaland, perhaps. Most of the stars remain with Real Madrid, Barcelona and PSG.

And in some ways, that isn't a mystery at all.

Part of it is logic. For all the criticism of the Premier League's nouveau riche excesses, the competition has increasingly tilted towards tactical sophistication. The stars have been the coaches – Pep Guardiola, Jürgen Klopp. Most clubs have consciously made that choice. The result is players subordinated to systems, unable to break out in the same way, and clubs less dependent on them.

There is also a self-perpetuating element to the Ballon d'Or. Continental clubs lobby aggressively for these awards to keep their stars happy. Premier League clubs, generally, don't.

You could even argue this dynamic has pushed Europe's super clubs to lean further into star power, as a counterbalance to the Premier League's financial dominance. If English clubs already hoard most of the talent, it might be unhealthy if they also monopolised the biggest names.

The ironies are many. PSG finally had a Ballon d'Or winner because they finally had a team good enough to win the Champions League. Real Madrid built their galaxy of stars partly in response to Premier League wealth – signing most of them as teenagers. Barcelona, meanwhile, leveraged their future just to keep buying stars, despite producing a phenomenon like Yamal through their academy.

Some things money can't buy – culture, lifestyle. As is often said in football circles, many stars would rather live in Madrid than Manchester. And many would simply rather play for Real Madrid or Barcelona. They remain the biggest clubs in the world.

That won't stop Premier League executives wanting to be the biggest in every sense, hence the growing push for a luxury tax. The idea would involve PSR exemptions alongside levies, designed to bring in the kind of stars seen as enhancing the league as a whole.

But this is the sort of mechanism a growing competition needs, like MLS with its designated players. The Premier League is not a growing competition. It doesn't need to expand – it needs to be more sophisticated with its wealth. Look at this summer's transfer window. Bryan Mbeumo returns to Brentford this weekend having been sold to Manchester United for more than £70m.

With no European club able to afford him, that valuation was entirely inflated within the Premier League.

That's a lot of indulgence. So is a luxury tax really the answer?

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New Benfica manager Jose Mourinho faces his former club Chelsea on Tuesday. The Portuguese managed Chelsea from 2004-07 and 2013-15. That makes Mourinho one of nine managers to have managed the same Premier League club over two separate permanent stints since 1992. Name the other eight, and the clubs they went back to. As a further clue, one manager went back to two different clubs twice.

Note: they must be permanent roles, so Frank Lampard at Chelsea doesn't count. His second stint at Stamford Bridge was a temporary role. As goes without saying, both of a manager's periods at a club have to have traversed time in the Premier League. So a spell where they never got out of the EFL would not count.

Vinícius Júnior' assessing what next

On the subject of stars in the Premier League – and of how the Ballon d'Or can serve as a barometer for the sport – could there be an opening for last year's runner-up?

There have been persistent questions about Vinícius Júnior's future at Real Madrid, given how staggered his minutes have been under Xabi Alonso. He has gone from sitting on the bench to captaining the team. One thing, however, is certain: The Independent has been told that Vinícius will not accept being "a rotational player". If the situation continues, he will push to leave.

Real Madrid previously refused even to take a meeting with Saudi Pro League clubs, as Florentino Pérez is known to love Vinícius. That stance may change, however, as the maths worsen for Madrid and the player's contract runs down towards June 2027. There are currently no talks about a renewal.

The issue is that only around five clubs can actually afford him. Alonso is said to have realised the 25-year-old is a much better player than he anticipated, but the new Madrid manager also wants to build his own team – hence Arda Güler and Franco Mastantuono being given far more minutes.

Decision on Israel may force Uefa-Fifa clash

The news about Israel on Thursday has sent ripples through world football. Senior figures at Uefa now believe the body has no choice but to take a stance, and are pushing for an Executive Committee meeting next week, with many associations and executives willing to discuss a suspension or even a ban.

If that happens, Uefa could find itself in a governance clash with Fifa. The global body is not expected to act, largely because of the United States' strong opposition to any ban, as well as Fifa president Gianni Infantino's relationship with Donald Trump. The prevailing view has long been that Fifa's guiding principle is to keep the Trump administration onside to ensure the 2026 World Cup proceeds smoothly.

That could create the hugely complicated scenario of Uefa banning Israel while still having to include them in World Cup qualifiers – because those fixtures fall under Fifa's jurisdiction, even though they are organised by Uefa.

As one source put it, this is shaping up to be the backdrop to the entire 2026 World Cup.

But the difference is also shown in a potential break from usual process. Before the Russia decision, in-keeping with most major issues, the Fifa president and all major Confederation presidents met to discuss and agree a direction since everything is so interconnected. For now, all suggestions are this is only coming from Uefa.

You can read more about it here.

Ask Miguel

In relation to last week's point on style, why does it have to be binary? Surely the same 11 players could've mixed the style up, slow possession football, mixed up with long balls. Supporters – me – are more forgiving of a faster-paced game when the team loses. How much pressure is Mikel Arteta under to win the title? I know the media say he's under pressure to do so, but what about the supporters? Richard

As for whether it's binary, the issue over the last 15 years has been that teams play within systems largely shaped by the Pep Guardiola era: short passing, possession, high pressing. As already discussed in this newsletter, there are signs that is beginning to change. If everyone is playing the same way, the advantage lies in doing things differently. Teams are becoming less ideologically rigid and are introducing more pragmatic variation.

On Arteta, there has been no pressure from within the club. Most of the power on the football side is concentrated around him. The question now is whether the KSE owners, by taking more direct control, will bring greater demands and a sharper expectation to win. They have been ruthless elsewhere.

As for the supporters, this is addressed in dispatches…

Want to ask a question?

Email me at m.delaney@independent.co.uk for a chance to be featured. 

There has been a great deal of focus on Arsenal of late, as the coverage in this very newsletter reflects – and that is because of the sense that this has to be their year. After so long building, they now need to finish the job.

At the 1-1 draw with Manchester City, it was hard not to feel that this weighed on the atmosphere. There was a flatness once the starting XI was announced, followed by a rushed agitation as the first half went on with Arsenal 1-0 down. That made the 1-0 defeat to Liverpool all the more significant, as it immediately put them back in a chasing position in the title race.

For Arteta's part, he did act at half-time, bringing on Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze, and the mood lifted instantly. The agitation dissipated, at least until the latter stages. It all underlined how crowds – and the emotional energy around a club – can directly shape what happens on the pitch.

Current score: 23 out of 50 for correct results, and 31 out of 150 when you factor in exact scorelines.

This week's predictions:

Brentford 2-2 Manchester United

Leeds United 1-1 Bournemouth

Chelsea 2-2 Brighton

Manchester City 2-0 Burnley

Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Sunderland

Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Wolves

Aston Villa 0-0 Fulham

Newcastle United 0-1 Arsenal

Everton 2-0 West Ham United

Last week wasn't great – just two results right and one exact scoreline.

As a reminder: it's one point for a correct outcome, three for a correct scoreline. Let me know how you're getting on if you're playing along.

Steve Coppell, Crystal Palace;

Roy Hodgson, Crystal Palace;

Kevin Keegan, Newcastle United;

Howard Kendall, Everton;

David Moyes, Everton, West Ham United;

Harry Redknapp, Portsmouth;

Quique Sanchez Flores, Watford;

Chris Wilder, Sheffield United

Drop me an email and let me know how you did. Thanks for reading – and see you on Monday!

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