Fed's tough job gets harder

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

Check out what ROI Editor-at-Large Mike Dolan and the rest of the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.

Hello Morning Bid readers! 

The job of the U.S. Federal Reserve was made a bit harder yesterday. First, there was news that second quarter GDP was revised up to 3.8%, the fastest annualized growth since 3Q2023. U.S. President Donald Trump then announced a batch of new tariffs, including 100% levies on branded drugs and 25% tariffs on heavy-duty trucks.

The details remain unclear and there will certainly be exemptions, but the combination of resilient economic growth and potential upward price pressures calls into question expectations for aggressive monetary easing. The market had been pricing in more than an 80% chance of a 50 basis point cut by December, but that's now down to roughly 60%. All eyes will be on the PCE inflation data coming out later today.

Even if the policy rate does keep falling, as expected, political uncertainty, fiscal issues and inflation fears could push up the long end of the curve. That might be bad news for the AI boom, argues Joachim Klement, investment strategist at Panmure Liberum.

Meanwhile, central bank-watchers got their fill this week, with a slew of talks from multiple Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, Governor Stephen Miran, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. 

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also spoke on the Market Musings podcast, suggesting that the Fed should consider replacing the 2% inflation target with a range, abandoning the "illusion of precision."

In the commodities markets, much attention has been focused on Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure. ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso argues that if these attacks are too successful, they risk raising the ire of President Trump.

In other energy news, the future of seaborne coal is looking increasingly split between robust domestic markets in China, India and Indonesia and a gradually fading seaborne market, explains ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell.

On the renewables side, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire notes which countries, beyond China, are likely to play the biggest role in determining future pollution trends.

And, finally, over in the metals world, ROI Metals Columnist Andy Home explains why traders are betting that the nickel price has hit rock bottom.

As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team's recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.

I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at anna.szymanski@thomsonreuters.com.

RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: For anyone interested in the complexities of the world's energy system, I highly recommend BP's 2025 Energy Outlook that was published on Thursday. The big headline was that BP delayed the expected peak in oil demand. But the report also details how the energy transition could play out. Be sure to read the excellent slides on the impact of today's geopolitical turmoil on future energy markets.

MIKE DOLAN, ROI Financial Markets Editor-at-Large: Governments have thus far lagged behind the private sector in adopting artificial intelligence in their core functions. While governments will face problems as they attempt to catch up, they potentially offer AI investment another tailwind. Assessing where governments are in the process, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development recently published a study outlining the state of play.

GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: This Reuters investigation reveals that a U.S. biofuel refinery supplying "green" jet fuel to airlines like JetBlue and Southwest, has sourced cattle fat from Brazilian slaughterhouses linked to illegal Amazon deforestation, raising serious questions about the environmental cost of clean energy incentives.

ANDY HOME, ROI Metals Columnist: The world's first industrial-scale wind turbines are coming to the end of their life. But how to recycle them? This piece from the Guardian looks at some of the latest technologies being pioneered. Interesting fact, by 2030, Europe will generate 40,000-60,000 tonnes of "blade waste".