The gloves fit an unpredictable derby

The gloves fit an unpredictable derby

Sunday may see the unusual situation of both Manchester clubs giving goalkeepers their debuts, adding to the unknowns of the match. Also this week:

Pep Guardiola has long had a theory about goalkeepers that might be put to test this Sunday. He already has considerable evidence for it from his very first Manchester derby, after all.

Guardiola believes that if a goalkeeper makes a key mistake in his first major game for a big club, they never really recover at that team. It's not that they're bad goalkeepers, or even that they're lacking any kind of resilience. Guardiola just believes that the position is so isolated that the player almost needs a fresh start.

Claudio Bravo was maybe the clearest illustration of this, in that derby back in September 2016. The Chilean was repeatedly caught in that match, leading to a Manchester United goal, and it was like he never got out of it. This was despite the fact he'd proven himself as a key part of the 2014-15 treble-winning Barcelona side that arguably superseded Guardiola's.

On Sunday, two goalkeepers at very different stages of their career may have to withstand this. Gianluigi Donnarumma has just been a key player in a treble himself, but it's not like he's unknown to make errors. The potential threat of it even felt like a theme of Paris Saint-Germain's Champions League run. The 23-year-old Senne Lammens hasn't got anything like that kind of experience, but that also means he hasn't got anything like Donnarumma's recent reputation either. The young Belgian is arguably United's most unknown first-choice goalkeeper signing since Peter Schmeichel… or maybe Tim Howard. Different Old Trafford careers there.

All of that is why it would be an incredibly bold choice for Ruben Amorim to just throw Lammens into his team, and give the former Royal Antwerp player a debut at the home of United's local rivals. Then again, this might be the time for bold decisions.

It is certainly indicative of where this derby is, and how uncertain and unpredictable the two teams are, that both may put in new goalkeepers. The very decisions on the starting line-ups will only add further intensity to the fixture. The obvious instruction any time that a team features a new goalkeeper is to test them early, and do it often.

That is only accentuated by the reality that neither club would probably have chosen to change goalkeepers right now.

Some mystery still surrounds the Ederson situation, particularly with how Guardiola absolutely adored him. The Brazilian is only 31, too, which is young for a goalkeeper – even a goalkeeper who is all too willing to operate as an outfielder.

One of the elements that Guardiola especially loved about Ederson was his unique ability to strike a ball so it would travel 80 yards on a pure trajectory and never deviate from just a few inches off the ground. The City manager used to utterly marvel at it.

That appreciation wasn't quite as lasting at the top levels of the club. It is understood there was growing agitation that City had endure constant transfer noise from Ederson's camp, first regarding Saudi Arabia and later Turkey. They eventually decided to just let it be done, especially as they seek to embark on a new era.

And yet it is the will for this new era that also makes the choice of new goalkeeper all the more notable. 

Guardiola doesn't just admire goalkeepers' ability with their feet. It has been an article of faith, the foundational principle of his football. His goalkeepers have long been an 11th outfielder. Hence Joe Hart was replaced by Bravo back in 2016 in the first place.

That makes it all the more strange that City have now gone for a goalkeeper who Paris Saint-Germain have discarded for precisely this reason. It's stranger still that Donnarumma wasn't even the first signing. James Trafford was, after City stole in to sign him ahead of Newcastle United. What must the England international be thinking now?

Is this a further sign of Guardiola's tactical evolution, or actually that City are starting to think of a future without him? Or is there any logic at all? There have been constant murmurs about internal differences of opinion regarding City's transfers.

We at least know most of what United are thinking. Andre Onana essentially suffered the same issue that Bravo did. A previously fine goalkeeper in Internazionale's 2022-23 Champions League run, he made early errors at United and never got out of it, either.

The hierarchy would have preferred to persist and spend money elsewhere, but the start to this season made the situation untenable. Amorim insisted on change.

Some sources have claimed that he also insisted on Emi Martinez, precisely because of all the issues mentioned here. The goalkeeper position is already isolated and pressurised, but United's recent troubles can make that close to unbearable. You probably need someone with the personality to weather that, and few have a personality like Martinez.

It's one that means he hasn't always been liked within football – including some former teammates – but then the same was true of Schmeichel. 

United ultimately couldn't ignore their own analysis, especially given the club's own will for a new direction. Lammens, it is felt, has the potential to be a future Schmeichel. He has all the attributes. And United want to start buying for a future that also fits the present, rather than be so guided by the expensive big names now. It might represent a risk for the short term, but they believe it is considerable investment in the long term.

Except, in the middle of all that, it's hard not to think of Guardiola's theory. Goalkeeping is so distinctive that one big game can scramble big plans. The alternative, of course, is what happens if they are the match-saving hero.

All of that forms a considerable sub-plot to Sunday, that may well end up being the main story. In terms of this unpredictable occasion, the glove more than fits.

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I've had so much feedback from Inside Football readers that I needed to set up a dedicated inbox! To make sure I don't miss your thoughts or questions – rather than them getting lost among press releases and briefings – please email me at m.delaney@independent.co.uk. Whether it's your take on this week's talking points or suggestions for this newsletter, I'd love to hear from you.

Let's go a bit more difficult this week, and a manager-related one as Ange Postecoglou returns. Since 1992, multiple managers have had multiple jobs in the Premier League, but there are 10 who have managed at least two clubs in the Premier League, but none of those clubs are currently in the Premier League. To give you the most difficult as an example, Chris Hutchings had permanent roles at Bradford City and Wigan Athletic. Name the other nine. And, if you want to go there, their clubs.

Note: caretaker roles don't count. So Michael Appleton at Leicester City and West Brom isn't an answer. If they managed a current Premier League club when that club was not in the Premier League, that does not count.

Forest may see more of the same... for now

The early suggestions – and suspicions from Arsenal – are that Ange Postecoglou will largely persevere with the Nuno Espirito Santo approach in this weekend's first big game. He hasn't exactly had time to begin instilling his more aggressive approach in this Nottingham Forest squad, and something more restrained also makes sense for this fixture. What's more, Postecoglou himself used it to good effect in that Europa League run. Arsenal are meanwhile hopeful that Bukayo Saka can be back for the Manchester City home match next week.

League games abroad now look very distant

Although it had been expected that Uefa's Executive Committee would on Thursday decide on whether La Liga could play a Villarreal-Barcelona fixture in Miami, the members ultimately felt there was still far too much to discuss. The days preceding the meeting in Tirana were filled with a lot of lobbying, and considerable tension. Some ExCo figures made their opposition all too clear. This build-up ensured that the meeting itself was strikingly calm, because everything had really been debated beforehand. The decision has been delayed but there is currently feeling that will ultimately mean these controversial fixtures aren't sanctioned. The European Parliament is set to vote on this specific issue in seeking to set their policies to shape a European model of sport in early October. It is seen as highly unlikely Uefa goes against the European parliament, no matter what happens elsewhere.

Elsewhere in off-pitch matters, Chelsea have been charged by the Football Association over breaches of agent regulations during the Roman Abramovich era, amid expectations it will only be a heavy fine due to the new ownership self-reporting. There is some aggravation about how these processes have been going among other clubs, given they feel they lost out regardless of who is owner. There's also a long way to go on this given that the Premier League investigation, which is expected to cover potential breaches of Financial Fair Play regulations, hasn't even reached this stage. More is explained here.

Ask Miguel

Has there been any consideration to having separate World Cup and Euros groups? It seems the smaller nations are less competitive than ever. How is it good for anyone to see France beat Gibraltar by 13 goals? If you took, say, the eight smallest nations in Europe and had a separate concurrent Euros, it would be far more interesting. (There could be exceptions for countries that punch above their weight) Ricky

Thanks Ricky. This actually is something that is being discussed within Uefa now, or at least something close to it. It is naturally being met with significant resistance by less populated nations, as they feel they should have the right to "dream" too. And I do have a lot of sympathy with that. People have suggested concurrent pre-qualifiers running alongside main qualifiers, with the top side going through to the main qualifiers for the next campaign, but that also feels somewhat unfair. I've long thought now the Champions League "Swiss system" – playing a selection of opponents in one big league phase – actually offers the best solution, as it offers a bit of everything.

What has happened to football today? It has been ruined by this one-touch football. No player carries the ball forward anymore, drawing a defender giving it to a winger. It seems that the ability of the winger to beat a defender is now non-existent. I'm 86 and Stanley Matthews and Tom Finney would be crying back to the dressing room. Edmund

Thanks Edmund. This is also something that is being discussed a lot within football now. Many people blame the Pep Guardiola era, which is somewhat ironic given that started with Lionel Messi and Andres Iniesta – neither ever afraid to take a man on. The spread of that football has visibly led to greater "control", though, which has been seen with the inhibition of Jack Grealish at City. As discussed in Monday's newsletter, though, I do think this is starting to change. I interviewed Andoni Iraola earlier in the year about precisely this issue, and he spoke a lot about insisting players seek to beat their man; to do something different. I feel we are going to start to see a swing back. Or, maybe, a swing of the hips.

Want to ask a question?

Email me at m.delaney@independent.co.uk for a chance to be featured. 

I had a little bit of a football ambition fulfilled this week as I finally got to go to the Marakana in Serbia, a stadium I've always wanted to visit. Regular readers will know I love the lore and history of the old European Cup, and you don't get much more lore than with the 1991 European champions, Red Star Belgrade. What was striking, mind, was that they don't seem to make too much of their European Cup. With other clubs who have won the trophy but aren't at that level any more, like Benfica, you see representations of the trophy everywhere. One greeted us in the press room at Aston Villa last week, for England's other qualifier against Andorra. I didn't have time to do the official tour but you don't really see it around the stadium. The only calls back were with the retro shirts you could sign from the club shop. More pleasingly, the window of the club shop was constantly playing footage of that great 1987-91 team, that featured of Robert Prosinecki, Dejan Savicevic and a personal favourite in Darko Pancev.

Both clubs have problems but it is still one of the biggest games in English football, with the problems actually only adding to the scale of this one. The two clubs badly need wins, and to ease their issues. There's an extra edge to this.

Current score: 16 out of 30 for correct results. 19 out of 90, taking in correct scorelines. This week's predictions:

Arsenal 3-0 Nottingham Forest

Bournemouth 2-2 Brighton

Newcastle United 1-0 Wolves

Everton 2-0 Aston Villa

Crystal Palace 2-1 Sunderland

Fulham 2-0 Leeds United

West Ham United 0-2 Tottenham Hotspur

Brentford 1-4 Chelsea

Burnley 0-3 Liverpool

Manchester City 0-1 Manchester United

In the bonus international week, I got seven results right and two exact scorelines right - if only that contributed to this!

Just as a reminder: it's one point for a correct outcome, and three for a correct scoreline. Let me know how you're getting on if you're playing along.

Nigel Adkins (Reading, Southampton)
Paul Jewell (Bradford City, Derby County, Wigan Athletic)
Gary Megson (Bolton Wanderers, West Brom)
Nigel Pearson (Leicester City, Watford)
Claude Puel (Leicester City, Southampton)
Bryan Robson (Middlesbrough, West Brom)
Gordon Strachan (Coventry City, Southampton)
Colin Todd (Bolton Wanderers, Derby County)
Danny Wilson (Barnsley, Sheffield Wednesday)

Drop me an email and let me know how you did. Thanks for reading – and see you on Monday!

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