Welcome to the first referendum on Donald Trump's presidency: Election night 2025.
For most of this year, the only evidence that public opinion has turned against Trump was an occasional special election or a judicial race in Wisconsin — approval ratings, aside.
But, as Inside Washington broke down last month, the gubernatorial races and other major-ticket statewide races.
And it doesn't get much better than a mayor's race in New York that could determine if socialist progressive insurgent Zohran Mamdani can have a clear mandate to govern, whether two moderate Democratic congresswomen can win governorships in states chock full of suburbanites and voters of color — and whether Democrats can redraw their congressional map in California, which would bolster Gavin Newsom's presidential aspirations.
Inside Washington has been following these races ravenously, checking out fundraising, polling and early voting. While occasionally we get it wrong and we promptly admit it, here's our boldest predictions for tomorrow night's elections in the heart of Dixie, the Garden State, the Big Apple and the Golden State.
Full disclosure: In the past, I've predicted Kamala Harris would win the presidency, Trump would pick a woman as his running mate and said the Dobbs effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade would not be a thing in 2022, only to think it would be a thing in 2024. But occasionally, I've gotten some things right, like saying Harris would pick Tim Walz as her running mate before Biden even dropped out, Trump winning Nevada and getting within a percentage point of Raphael Warnock's Senate victory in 2022. Feel free to roast me come Wednesday morning.
Read more here.
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