Tuesday, November 25, 2025

It is a puzzle. The chancellor needs to find at least £10bn a year to pay for restoring the pensioners' winter fuel allowance, failing to cut disability benefits and lifting the two-child limit for universal credit. She needs unknown billions to pay for a worsening fiscal position since the last OBR forecast in March. 

She needs more unknown billions to fill the gap left by the OBR's lower estimate of the productivity of the UK economy. And more unknown billions to increase her margin for error – the "headroom" that proved insufficient so quickly after last year's Budget. 

And now authoritative leaks suggest that she will continue to freeze fuel duty – that is another £2.6bn a year – and she will subsidise some people's energy bills. 

Only three weeks ago, the arithmetic looked so dire that Rachel Reeves delivered an early-morning speech in Downing Street to prepare us for an income-tax rise. 

Now that tax rise is off, leaving only bits and pieces. Where is all the money coming from? Is the OBR suddenly forecasting fiscal sunshine, or has she found Zack Polanski's secret hoard of free money?

What was Roxy Music's only No 1 hit in the UK chart? 

Answer at the bottom of today's email 

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Daily briefing

Keir Starmer 'told off' for encouraging pupils to do the 6-7 craze

Prime minister joined in viral TikTok silliness

Ask Gabriel Nussbaum (That Money Guy) Anything about the Budget

Get your questions in now for the personal finance expert who will take your questions live on Thursday

Nigel Farage describes schoolboy racism claims as 'banter in a playground'

Reform UK leader is accused of making racist and antisemitic comments at Dulwich College but said he never did so 'with intent'

What else you need to know today

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The Independent View

The Voters' View

Two-thirds of voters want Reeves to cut spending rather than hike taxes in Budget

Even Labour voters prefer lower public spending to tax rises, according to an opinion poll from More in Common...

Read more

MOST COMMENTED

QUOTATION OF THE DAY

I didn't start it, Miss

Keir Starmer, told off by a teacher for joining pupils in the "6-7" meme 

Quiz answer: "Jealous Guy," March 1981.

Apologies for the error in yesterday's quiz question: the list of US presidents who have been assassinated should have read Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley and Kennedy

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