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Researchers have warned that the climate crisis could trigger a global financial crash, because the economic models guiding governments and investors are failing to capture how climate damage really unfolds.
Instead of gradual losses spread evenly over time, as current models assume, a new study argues that warming is far more likely to hit economies through extreme weather, cascading disruptions and sudden tipping points.
Conducted by more than 60 climate scientists in 12 countries, the study shows that beyond 2C of warming, climate damage is likely to become structural and compounding, disrupting multiple sectors of the world economy at once and threatening the conditions needed for growth.
"Beyond 2C, we're not dealing with manageable economic adjustments," said Jesse Abrams, the report's lead author, warning that current models "systematically underestimate climate damages" because they cannot capture "the cascading failures, threshold effects, and compounding shocks that define climate risk in a warmer world".
The report also argues that headline indicators such as GDP can hide the true cost of disasters — because reconstruction spending can push GDP up even as deaths, ill health, inequality and ecosystem loss rise.
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