Seoul-sapping selloff

Asia's big manufacturing economies are heavily exposed to imported energy products from the Middle East, so both the price rise and supply uncertainty caused by the conflict are alarming.

However, there were tentative signs that markets elsewhere are taking a breather, as investors await further developments. Both U.S. and global Brent crude oil prices were up another 3% but held below Tuesday's 8-month and 19-month highs, respectively.

Europe's stocks popped up about 0.5% in what looked like a pause after two days of heavy selling. U.S. stock futures were marginally higher too. And the dollar's rise flattened out for the most part, even though government bond yields continued to push higher.

Gold and precious metals, unexpected losers this week during the geopolitical shock, regained some poise on Wednesday as the dash for cash abated somewhat.

President Trump announced plans to provide shipping insurance and possible naval support for energy supplies to exit an effectively closed Gulf - and that may be helping at the margins, although these moves could take some time to have an impact. World markets asking when this energy blockage will abate are having to think in weeks rather than days.

The conflict in Iran and across the region is impossible to predict. Many are now focusing on who's set to take over as Supreme Leader following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last weekend. Some in markets took heart from a New York Times story that said Tehran officials had made a secret outreach to Washington over the weekend on how to end the conflict.

But for investors who think the coast will be clear once Gulf tensions ease, there are plenty of other things to worry about. For one, there's rising concern about private credit funds run by the likes of Blackstone and BlackRock.

Today's calendar sees more routine issues back on the radar, with the ADP's private sector jobs report and ISM's service sector survey both coming out. The former may be looked at more closely in light of the big U.S. payrolls report due on Friday.

And with that, onto today's column.

The most peculiar market move in an alarming week of Middle East conflict was how the most obvious "safe haven" - gold - flubbed its lines. Instead of piling into gold, investors seemed to sprint for dollar cash, offloading anything that caught a speculative head of steam before last weekend's attacks.

Three days after Saturday's attacks on Iran, the initial bid for ‌precious metals faded quickly. On Tuesday, there was a major reversal, with gold suddenly falling 4% and silver dropping as much as 10%.

A return of the dollar's long-lost "safety bid", which saw the greenback climb this week despite heavy losses in U.S. stocks and bonds, was cited as one basic reason for gold's reversal.

Both public and private funds in the Middle East region now facing Iranian retaliatory strikes may be opting for dollar liquidity. A spike in dollar-denominated oil and gas prices may also have spurred demand for cash in the world's reserve currency.

The main reason for the dollar rise, however, is most likely the hit to major European and Asian ⁠economies from a protracted energy supply disruption and price spike compared with the relatively insulated U.S.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

European gas prices have soared this week on the energy supply disruption in the Middle East and Qatar in particular, hitting their highest levels in three years - almost 20% higher than they were this time last year.

As the Iran conflict unfolds, Europe is emerging from the winter with gas storage levels running well below five-year averages. The EU on Wednesday told member states it does not see any immediate impact on the security of natural gas supply.

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