There are plenty of reasons to believe that Democrats are headed toward a blue wave. Democrats are turning out in record numbers in primary contests even in "safe" races. They continue to over-perform in special elections, even flipping the state legislative seat that includes Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate.
Added to that, the war in Iran is already causing Trump to crater with groups of voters that had boosted him to reelection–such as Latino voters. And most major pollsters show that voters would overwhelmingly vote for a generic Democrat for Congress compared to a generic Republican.
But one of the biggest indicators of an impending Democratic win come November is the number of Republicans in the House of Representatives not running for reelection.
As of Monday, a record 36 Republicans have announced they would not run again. That is a record for the largest number of retirements for a midterm election cycle since 1930, in the throes of the Great Depression, according to the Brookings Institution. And if history is any indication, it is a bad sign for Trump and his party to retain control of the House.
To give a good contrast, in 2018, when Democrats won back the House with a net margin of 41 seats, 34 Republicans did not run for re-election. That wave of retirements came amid Trump's regime of family separation for undocumented immigrants and after the failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
In addition, only 21 Democrats are not seeking reelection. The rationale is clear: If members of the minority party think they will win the House, they are less likely to retire because they can get committee chairmanships, plum positions in leadership and the chance to pass legislation. By contrast, retirements offer a dignified alternative to losing in a humilating fashion or, given the majoritarian nature in the House, being in a far diminished stature in the minority.
Read more here.
0 comentários:
Postar um comentário