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The Atlantic Ocean’s main current system is significantly more likely to collapse than previously believed, French researchers say - and the consequences are potentially dire.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which is also known as the AMOC, regulates Earth's climate by transporting warm water from the tropics to Europe and the Arctic.
The current has been slowing for years as human-driven climate change has melted freshwater glaciers, according to scientists. Although, when it could collapse has been a point of contention among scientists.
If it does collapse, experts predict global disaster, including extreme cold winters and summer droughts for European countries.
And a new study has determined a concerning timeline for a critical threshold.
The AMOC is estimated to slow down at a rate of between 42-58 per cent by 2100: a level almost certain to end in collapse and weakening that is 60 per cent stronger than that estimated by the average of all climate models.
“This is an important and very concerning result. It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the AMOC by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data," Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
“I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that AMOC shutdown tipping point,where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close," he said.
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