A Reuters Open Interest newsletter |
|
|
Stocks rose on Wednesday and oil and the dollar fell, on continued optimism that de-escalation in the Middle East is imminent. U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will leave Iran "pretty quickly", and attention now turns to his televised address later on Wednesday evening. In my column today I look at whether central banks are selling Treasuries, an issue back in the spotlight as Fed custody holdings sink to a 16-year low. The answer isn't straightforward - they probably are, but not as fast as you'd think. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com. You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @reutersjamie.bsky.social. |
|
|
- STOCKS: Sky of blue, sea of green. In Asia, South Korea +9%, Japan +5%. In Europe, STOXX 600 +2.5%, FTSE 100 +1.8%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +1.2%. MSCI World has biggest 2-day gain since last April.
- SECTORS/SHARES: Eight S&P 500 sectors rise. Industrials, materials, tech, comms services rise 1% or more. Energy -4%, biggest fall in a year, Nike -15%, Chevron -5%. Intel +8%, Eli Lilly +5%.
- FX: Dollar -0.4%, posts biggest two-day decline since early Feb. Biggest G10 FX gainer is GBP, biggest EM gainer is CLP.
- BONDS: A quiet day for U.S. Treasuries, yields up 1-2 bps across the curve. Rates futures drifting back to price in Fed cut this year rather than hike.
- COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil down: Brent -3%, WTI -2%. Gold +2%. U.S. nat gas hits 6-month closing low.
|
|
|
* The address will be televised U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver a prime-time address to the nation on Wednesday night, and is expected to provide an "important update on Iran". It is likely to be market-moving, although in which direction, it's not clear. That's the problem - there is no clarity. In recent days Trump has said the war is over, or the U.S. will continue bombing; re-opening the Strait of Hormuz is central to a deal, or it's not; there could be troops on the ground, or not; a deal is close at hand, or it's not. Will his TV address provide clarity? * March madness Despite the month of March bringing war, $100 oil and huge global supply shocks, consumers, businesses and investors seem remarkably upbeat. Sentiment surveys and purchasing managers index indicators point to a general belief that any economic pain will be short-lived. Investors clearly want to buy the dip. The question now is whether this optimism translates into the hard activity data. It's difficult to imagine no hit to production, trade, spending or investment. But we've been surprised before. * U.S. nat gas at 6-month ... low? U.S. natural gas futures fell on Tuesday to their lowest level since the Middle East conflict started on February 28, and posted their lowest close in six months. Yes, you read that correctly - lowest. While global energy prices remain volatile and elevated, especially in Asia and Europe, U.S. gas prices are being pressured by high storage and mild weather. The front month closed on Tuesday at $2.819/mBtu, down 20% from the post February 27 peak of $3.494 on March 9. |
|
|
Are central banks selling Treasuries? Probably, just not that much |
Are central banks unloading Treasuries amid the controversial U.S.-led war in the Middle East? Likely yes, but it's complicated. On the one hand, foreign-owned Treasuries held in custody at the New York Federal Reserve just fell to a 16-year low below $3 trillion. This suggests foreign central banks are selling, and at an increasingly rapid pace. On the other hand, official U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) figures - the gold-standard data for foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries - show that foreign central bank sales last year were minuscule, and that net purchases in January were the biggest in 13 years. |
What could move markets tomorrow? |
- Developments in the Middle East
- Energy market moves
- Australia trade (February)
- South Korea inflation (March)
- Canada trade (February)
- U.S. Challenger layoffs (March)
- U.S. weekly jobless claims
- U.S. trade (February)
- U.S. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
|
|
|
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. |
|
|
| | | | | Trading Day is sent every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. Want to stop receiving this email? Unsubscribe here. To manage which newsletters you're signed up for, click here. This email includes limited tracking for Reuters to understand whether you’ve engaged with its contents. For more information on how we process your personal information and your rights, please see our Privacy Statement. Terms & Conditions | | | | | © 2026 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
3 Times Square, New York, NY 10036 | | | |
|
|
|
0 comentários:
Postar um comentário