The Briefing: Lessons of Q1

15:04 |

The Briefing

Apr 5, 2026

The Briefing

By Martin Peers

Supported by

Thanks for reading The Briefing, our nightly column where we break down the day's news. If you like what you see, I encourage you to subscribe to our reporting here.

Greetings!

The first quarter is over, and tech earnings season is only a couple of weeks away. Here's something worth thinking about: Big tech stocks out of favor with investors—particularly Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms—need to show something striking when they report for the quarter if they want to get out of the doghouse they're in.

If they don't, sentiment is likely to become even more negative. In the next few months, tech investors are going to have the opportunity to put money into SpaceX and later OpenAI and Anthropic. But as we've pointed out, the amount of money those three companies are looking to raise in their public debuts this year is far higher than what the IPO market can typically support. That suggests investors will have to sell existing holdings to participate. (OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar doesn't think the company will be ready to go public this year, as we reported today).

Midsize software firms seen as threatened by AI disruption may be most at risk of winding up in the remainder bin. But Microsoft, Amazon and Meta, none of which has its own leading AI model, may not be much better off. Investors have already started to defect from these positions, judging by the first-quarter sell-off in those stocks.

Microsoft, for instance, is down 23% so far this year, while Meta has fallen 13% and Amazon 9%, according to Koyfin data. Apple and Alphabet, in contrast, are each down between 5% and 6%. Software firms such as Salesforce, ServiceNow and Snowflake fell around 30%. And this is just the first quarter. Given that the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs likely won't happen until the fourth quarter, how will these older tech names fare over the next six months?

SpaceX Starship Delays Pile Up

For SpaceX, getting the next-generation Starship rocket into commercial service is the key to virtually all of the company's plans for future growth, including expanding Starlink service, sending NASA astronauts to the moon and building orbital data centers. But critical tests of Starship keep getting delayed.

On Friday, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk revealed the latest delay when he said the next Starship launch would occur in the first two weeks of May. Musk had previously said in January that the next test would occur in March, then pushed back the date to April. Starship has not launched at all since October 2025 and still needs to successfully complete several more tests before it can start making commercial missions. If the next test launch gets delayed yet again, it's possible it could wind up happening after SpaceX plans to go public in June.

You can't blame SpaceX for being careful—waiting another month is certainly preferable to having a rocket blow up spectacularly right before the IPO. But you'd also think all the delays would concern potential investors. However, many fund managers seem to view the IPO as too big to fail and will buy into anything Musk related regardless of what they actually think of the company, as my colleague Cory Weinberg reported this week.

Musk's other big company, Tesla, still has a gigantic market capitalization of more than $1.1 trillion despite often blowing through deadlines. Based on Musk's statements, so far in 2026, Tesla should have unveiled an overhauled model of its Optimus humanoid robot, revealed an updated version of its roadster vehicle and received regulatory approval for its supervised self-driving software in Europe and China. None of those things has happened.—Theo Wayt

In Other News

• Microsoft hit an internal goal for sales of its Copilot AI software in the first three months of 2026, commercial CEO Judson Althoff told staff on Thursday, according to someone who heard the remarks. Althoff did not disclose what the goal was but called it "audacious," this person said.

• OpenAI's CEO of AGI deployment, Fidji Simo, is taking "several weeks" of medical leave, according to an internal memo seen by The Information. Simo suffers from a chronic condition called postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, which has led her to primarily work from her home in Southern California since joining OpenAI last August (more here).

Friday on The Information's TITV

Check out Friday's episode of TITV in which we debate the likely outcomes of the SpaceX IPO.

Recommended Newsletter

AI Agenda by Stephanie Palazzolo separates hype from reality and explains how AI is transforming industries. The 4x/week newsletter details the innovation and disruption happening in AI, from the AI startup funding frenzy to the major technological breakthroughs that will set the agenda for decades to come. Sign up today.

A message from Genspark

Can AI Really Become Your New Employee?

Genspark Claw gives every executive a personal AI operator on a secure cloud-hosted computer- able to navigate apps, execute complex workflows, and turn intent into action. This is where AI stops assisting and starts contributing. Try it now.