Greetings,

Prediction markets have spent the past year moving from the edges of crypto into the financial mainstream. But this week’s story on Polymarket shows how difficult that transition can be.

The company is racing to rebuild its U.S. business after being forced out in 2022. Yet behind the scenes, its rollout has been slowed by leadership questions, infrastructure challenges and rising competition from rivals like Kalshi, Coinbase and Gemini.

Why it caught my eye:

• Polymarket’s U.S. CEO appears to play only a limited operational role during a critical expansion phase
• The company’s U.S. rollout has lagged expectations, with a 1.3 million-person waitlist and ongoing banking and infrastructure hurdles
• Prediction markets are growing rapidly, with trading volume across Polymarket and Kalshi reaching roughly $28 billion in April

What stands out is how quickly prediction markets are evolving from niche crypto products into mainstream financial platforms—and how much operational and regulatory pressure comes with that shift.

As more major firms enter the space, the race is no longer just about growth. It’s about who can build the infrastructure and credibility to scale under increasing scrutiny.

Best,

Jessica Lessin
Founder & Editor-in-Chief

Polymarket’s Homecoming Is Shaky and its U.S. CEO Is AWOL

Four years after its was exiled from the U.S., Polymarket was desperate to get back into the country. To make that happen, the prediction market bought a derivative and futures exchange that had just gotten a U.S. license and retained its chief executive, Justin Hertzberg, to run Polymarket U.S.

Hertzberg appears to be CEO in name only. His main job for Polymarket appears to be signing U.S. regulatory documents. The company’s U.S. business has struggled, falling behind that of its archrival, Kalshi.