Did this week help Trump?

When Trump raised a glass in Xi’s honor at Thursday’s state dinner, he did so with sparkling wine from the same California vintner that supplied the historic toast between US President Richard Nixon and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai in Beijing in 1972. 

The symbolic gesture was a tribute to what many scholars regard as one of Washington’s finest diplomatic coups of modern times, the establishment of relations with the People's Republic of China. Nixon was riding high then; two years later, the Republican’s political career was over. 

Political fortunes can change fast. Trump spent the first year of his second term in office riding high politically as voters largely rallied behind a series of aggressive foreign policy moves, culminating in the audacious capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. 

Year two has been different. The war in Iran has driven up fuel prices and become a growing political liability for Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections. This week, Trump’s approval rating sank to 32%, the lowest of his political career, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.  

The Xi dinner capped a big foreign policy week for Trump that also included meetings in New York for the United Nations General Assembly. It is not clear that either event may do much for him come Election Day as pollsters say Americans are squarely focused on the cost of living, not foreign policy. 

There was little movement on the one pressing foreign policy issue – the US war with Iran, which is causing costs at home to rise. Two Republicans in tight US Senate races called on Monday for a swift end to the war, and the Senate itself on Thursday narrowly rejected a resolution calling for the same. 

Trump told Americans he does not expect the war he started with Israel in February to end by Election Day. “I believe we'll make a deal right after the election because it doesn't make sense for them not to,” Trump told the UN on Tuesday, speaking about Iran. “They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election.” Iran’s president said they “will not bow to pressure.” 

Trump is also seeking quick solutions to curb record fuel prices. On Tuesday, he backed a ban on diesel exports, only to have his energy secretary Chris Wright dismiss the idea the next day as a step that could raise gasoline and jet fuel prices.  

While Xi's visit to Washington delivered no obvious breakthroughs, it did buy Trump time by extending a market-stabilizing trade truce due to expire in November into the new year. The week's diplomacy also produced no major setbacks, sparing Republicans from new shocks that could pose fresh electoral challenges.  

Republicans are hoping the political winds will shift in their favor. But with just 39 days until elections, time may be running out for Trump to convince voters he is just as focused on easing their economic anxieties as managing crises abroad. 

Follow Reuters/Ipsos polling on the president's approval ratings here.

Which national issues—including healthcare and medical research, climate and environmental policy, and foreign policy toward Iran—are having the greatest influence on competitive races, and how are candidates connecting those issues to voters’ daily lives? 

Answer by Nathan Layne and Jason Lange  

Our Reuters/Ipsos polling suggests that rising prices, exacerbated by the war with Iran, are having an outsized impact on the midterm environment. About half of voters say the cost of living is the single most important issue in the congressional elections, compared with roughly one in five who cite democratic norms and about one in 10 who point to immigration. 

That focus on inflation extends across the major expenses that dominate household budgets, from housing and healthcare to food and fuel. Gasoline prices, pushed higher by the conflict, and the elevated cost of grocery staples such as coffee and beef are particularly potent politically because voters encounter them regularly at the pump and checkout counter. 

Starting this past summer, our polling has shown that, for the first time in a decade, voters view Democrats as better stewards of the economy than Republicans. Against that backdrop, Republican strategists and party officials say they are seeking to frame the midterms as a choice between two parties, casting Democrats as increasingly influenced by socialist ideas, rather than a referendum on current economic conditions. 

This newsletter was edited by Ross Colvin and Alistair Bell and produced by Rawan Yaghi.