US midterm elections don't typically produce market fireworks.
Yet the results of tomorrow's contests could add to investor concerns. Top of mind are AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations, and their implications for Corporate America if Democrats put companies under the microscope.
Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2025 with full Republican control of Congress, the S&P 500 has gained about 27%, benefiting from vast capital spending on AI and strong earnings growth. However, Treasury yields are also substantially higher, particularly after the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, setting off a surge in energy prices that is now seeping into other parts of the US economy.
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